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Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing weather around the South pacific

07 February 2016

MetBob Blog 7 Feb

WEATHERGRAM
YOTREPS
Issued 7 February 2016
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

Over the past month the isobar patterns have been remarkable in the northern hemisphere, with the Siberian winter HIGH and the North Pacific lows both more intense than normal.
See http://metbob.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=297f1d13c59cf6261733851cb&id=c41d223b89&e=78b77fda36

Also the HIGHS have been higher than normal around Australia and New Zealand, and there have been lower than normal pressure near Tahiti.
As seen at http://metbob.us12.list-manage1.com/track/click?u=297f1d13c59cf6261733851cb&id=8e363b8d63&e=78b77fda36

In spite of these anomalous HIGHS, there has been good rainfall over Australia and NZ during the past month, and the drier than normal areas in the past month have actually been over Vanuatu/Fuji/Tonga; as seen at http://metbob.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=297f1d13c59cf6261733851cb&id=b2af754e2b&e=78b77fda36

Tropical Cyclones
There are none around at present but there are possible topical lows forming near 14S 58E, 5S 87E, 15S 158E, and 9S 175E. That last one is expected to deepen further and may turn into a cyclone SW of Tuvalu later this week, travelling to SW of Fiji around 11 to 13 February.

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ is reforming mainly between equator and 10S, with tongues of convection onto northern Vanuatu and towards Samoa and Fiji. Tropical LOW is expected to deepen over Tuvalu on Wednesday local and then travelling south to be SW of Fiji on Thursday 11 to Saturday 13 February.

STR= Sub-tropical Ridge
HIGH east of NZ on Monday is expected to move off to the east along 45S.
HIGH over central Tasman Sea on 10 Feb NZ is slow-moving and expected to get east of NZ on 13 Feb then start travelling off to the east.

For NZ and Tasman Sea
Trough in the central Tasman Sea is expected to cross NZ on Tuesday and Wednesday then fade off to the east. Next trough is expected to skirt around southern NZ on Saturday 13th, followed by another on 16th Feb.

>>>>>>
See my yotpak at boatbooks.co.nz/weather.html for terms used.
See my website www.metbob.com for information on tailor-made voyage forecasts– Feedback to bob@metbob.com.

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