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Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing weather around the South pacific

31 January 2016

Bob Blog 31 Jan 2016

Bob Blog 31 Jan 2016
WEATHERGRAM
YOTREPS
Issued 31 January 2016
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.

During summer there are cycles of increased convection every 4 to 6 weeks or
so that can trigger tropical cyclones. These are called Madden Julian
Oscillations and the phase diagram of the MJO can be seen at
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/forca.shtml
This phase diagram shows that the next cycle of increased convection for the
South Pacific is likely to be around mid-February, but that it is also
likely to be weaker than the MJO cycle we had at the turn of the year.

The meteorologists at Meteo France in New Caledonia are constructed a model
that converts the behavior of MJO into a probability map for the formation
of tropical cyclones, and it is no great surprise this model also is
picking mid-February and the most likely timing for the net cyclone.
To see this goto
http://www.meteo.nc/modules/mod_cyclone_experts/assets/popup/850_bis_cycl.ph
p?dossier=L3Byb2QvY3ljbG9uZXMvZXhwZXJ0cw==


Tropical Cyclones
TC STAN formed during the past week over the seas to northwest of Australia
and is now moving inland.
Weekly rain maps for the tropics (from
http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/rmm_rain/Events/big_global_accumlation.gif) over
the past two weeks show a gradual strengthening of the South Pacific
Convergence Zone, especially in the Coral Sea and along the Queensland
coast.

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ is reforming mainly between equator and 10S, with tongues of
convection onto northern Vanuatu and towards Samoa and Fiji.

STR= Sub-tropical Ridge
HIGH east of NZ on Monday is expected to move off to the east later this
week.
New HIGH over Tasmanian at end of the week is expected to travel into mid
Tasman early next week.

For NZ and Tasman Sea
Trough that is crossing New South Wales on Monday is expected to deepen into
a low over mid Tasman sea by late Wednesday and then deepen further an it
travels across northern NZ during long weekend of 6 to 8 Feb (Waitangi day
public holiday has been Mondayised).

>>>>>>
See my yotpak at boatbooks.co.nz/weather.html for terms used.
See my website www.metbob.com for information on tailor-made voyage
forecasts- Feedback to bob@metbob.com.
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