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Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing weather around the South pacific

11 September 2016

Bob Blog 11Sep

WEATHERGRAM
YOTREPS
Prepared 11 September 2016 NZST
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.

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The Tropics
TC MERANTI is heading for the China Sea and ORLENE is off the Mexican West
Coast.
There is a tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico-not expected to make
landfall,
and are several in the Atlantic with one that may reach UK by end of the week.
Cyclone tracks may be seen at ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/

RAIN around the tropics:
Rain for the past fortnight from
trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/big_global_accumlation.gif
show an easing in activity over Indian Ocean, but much the same in South West
Pacific.

WEATHER ZONES
Weather Zones (see text) as expected mid-week on Wednesday (GFS model) showing
wind, isobars, current, swell black arrows / Sig wave height purple lines, swell
and wind waves, SPCZ and STR.

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
SPCZ this week is expected to remain strong in the Solomon Islands to north of
Fiji area, with a burst of activity along 10S between Tokelau and Northern
Cooks. The SPCZ is likely to pass across Fiji and Tonga /Niue around early to
mid-week (as seen at windyty.com using Rain accumulation).

Subtropical ridge (STR)
High that is over North island tonight is expected to stretch out along 35S to
east of NZ this week. It is somewhat of mediocre intensity, and that's good news
for there isn't really any associated squash zone on its northern side in the
tropics.
Next HIGH is NOT expected to travel into Tasman Sea until mid-next-week.

Travel from Tahiti to Tonga:
Voyage along about 20S is likely to encounter the passing SPCZ around local wed
to Friday 14 to 16 Sep, and that may be squally.
It is looking OK to venture via Suwarrow this week.

Travel between NZ and the Tropics:
Over northern NZ expect NW winds ahead of a front travelling on Fri 16 Sep,
maybe OK for arrival.
But avoid arriving Sat /Sun 17/18 Sep when there is a front or Mon 19 Sep when
the maybe a gale change to SW winds.
Then OK to arrange departure so as to arrive with a ridge of light winds wed 21
Sep--- such a voyage may go thru a front near 32S but with no more than 25 knots
for a brief time, possibly an acceptable compromise.

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See my website www.metbob.com for information on tailor-made voyage forecasts-
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2 comments:

Sappa Lama Gomso said...
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alexandra mollet said...
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