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Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing weather around the South pacific

18 September 2016

Bobgram issued 18 Sep

WEATHERGRAM
YOTREPS
Prepared 18 September 2016 NZST

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.

The Tropics
TC MALAKAS is heading for Japan and JULIA is off to Florida and the Carolinas
whilst KARL should stay offshore in the Atlantic. Cyclone tracks may be seen on
ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/

Rain for the past fortnight can be seen at
trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/big_global_accumlation.gif
They show an easing in activity everywhere.

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
SPCZ this week is expected to remain steady in the Solomon Islands to north of
Fiji area.
Rather weak further east.
A Passing trough may affect from Niue to Southern Cooks during the week (after
Tuesday local).

Subtropical ridge (STR)
This is expected to remain weak and along about 25 to 30S.
Net High is NOT expected to enter Tasman Sea until around 1 Oct.

Travel from Tahiti to Tonga:
No squash zones, and no strong convergence zones, but voyages are likely to
encounter a passing trough with maybe some showers and varying winds for a day
or two. It is looking OK to venture via Suwarrow this week.

Travel between the Tropics and NZ:
Remember that NZ changes to NZDT next Sunday 25 Sep.
A series of LOWS are expected to travel across Tasman Sea / Northern NZ area
over next two weeks with lows crossing Northland on Wed 21, then next on Sat/Sun
24/25 Sep then wed/tue/fri 28/29/30 Sep, then maybe Sun 2 Oct.
Try and arrange arrival in NZ BETWEEN these lows.

Travel between New Caledonia and Australia:
Too many lows crossing the Tasman sea next two weeks. Maybe try again when that
IGH arrives around early October.
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See my yotpak at boatbooks.co.nz/weather.html for terms used.
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