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Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing weather around the South pacific

30 October 2016

Bob Blog 30 oct

WEATHERGRAM
YOTREPS
Compiled 30 October2016
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.

The Tropics
A reminder that the NOMINAL South Pacific cyclone season starts on Tuesday.
Nothing expected this week.

After a few busy weeks, the tropics seem to be taking a rest for now. There are
a few small tropical lows around but nothing of much significance tonight.

Rain for the past fortnight from
trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/big_global_accumlation.gif
shows that last week looks similar to the previous week, except for less rain
last week in the ITCZ and the North Atlantic (than previous week).

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
SPCZ this week is expected to go thru a venting process and send an bundle of
wet tropical air across Fiji tonight and across Tonga on Monday then off to the
southeast as a Low. There may be squally showers in this, so avoid departure
from Tonga on Monday. After that the zone should be reasonably quiet for the
remainder of the week.
Tropical accumulated rainfall for next week may be seen at windyty.com

Subtropical ridge (STR)
A HIGH is travelling east across central NZ on Monday-this is typical of a
summer pattern, but wrong month, so may bring some frosts, unwelcome in
vineyards at this stage.
Next high is likely to cross Tasman sea along 35S from Tuesday to Thursday and
fade west of NZ.
From Thursday onwards there should be a weak ridge along 30 to 35S across the
whole South Pacific.
Not strong enough this week to produce any squash zones.

Travel from Tahiti to Tonga:
Avoid departing from Tahiti area on local 1 to 2 Nov due light winds and a weak
passing trough. Winds looks OK for getting to Tonga, but there may be a trough
in the Tongan area early next week (7/8 Nov) so avoid that for arrival.
==============================
This is the time of year that yachts are staging themselves in Tonga (or Fiji or
New Caledonia) and waiting for the right weather pattern for sailing to NZ or
Australia.
The Island Cruising Association are supporting the All Points Rally, from all
major parts of South Pacific to Opua ending in a one-week seminar 16 to 20
November in Opua. Boats joining the rally are assisted with weather info,
resources and planning tools to help make the passage to NZ as easy as possible.
On arrival participants are welcomed to Opua and entertained with a week of
entertainment and seminars on a range of topics. This rally is FREE thanks to
the assistance of Main Sponsors Bay of Islands Marina and Boatyard and the Opua
business community. See www.islandcruising.co.nz/?page_id=717
Further west there is the GO WEST Rally. Again from any port (most are leaving
from Noumea) this time to BUNDABERG, with welcome week starting 6 November 2016.

See www.downunderrally.com/westrallyfee
==============================
Travel between Tonga and NZ:
South Pacific convergence zone or maybe an upper trough expected to cross Tongan
area on Monday= possible squally showers, southerly winds gusty and lightning.
May as well stay put for that.
Remainder of week looks OK for departure; the next rough is expected early next
week.
The arrival times to avoid getting S of 30S to NZ are Mon to Wed 7 to 9 Nov.

Travel between Fiji and NZ
Diwali Public holiday on Monday
South Pacific convergence zone or maybe an upper trough should clear off by
Tuesday morning then OK to depart for remainder of the week.
The arrival times to avoid getting S of 30S to NZ are Mon to Wed 7 to 9 Nov.

Travel between New Caledonia and NZ
Public holidays on Monday and Tuesday (All Saints) so can't check out until
Wednesday,
Weather traffic along the way -there's a mediocre trough on Tue/wed 1/2 Nov,
then a weak low on Fri/sun 4/6 Nov, Avoid getting south of 30S Mon to Wed 7
to 9 Nov.

Travel for New Caledonia to Australia
Public holidays on Monday and Tuesday (All Saints) so can't check out until
Wednesday,
A trip to Bundaberg goes through a passing mediocre trough, no strong winds but
a period of variable winds to challenge you.
Going to NSW, the weather traffic along the way is the challenge of active cold
front on Sat 5 Nov followed by strong to gale southerly winds and rough seas,
and a trough off Coffs on Fri 11 Nov.
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