Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing weather around the South pacific

06 November 2016

Bob Blog 6 Nov 2016


Compiled 06 November 2016

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.

Weather models and weather advice depends primarily on a good network of useful
observations. I have been approached by GREG JUST on Tonga this week and he has
started a crowd-funding appeal to set up an account to add new weather stations
especially to the marine ports around Tonga and later on a few nearby Island
groups. This is a just cause (pun) and I support it. If any of you have ever
thought that I may be worthy of a bottle of wine for my efforts with this blog
or my forecasting, then here's your chance to make me proud and appreciative.

Please donate the equivalent of a bottle of beer or wine to this fund and
comment "thanks to MetBob"
I'll be watching to see just how much I'm appreciated, and you get the
opportunity to share your bottle of beer/wine for me on Facebook.Even if you
don't contribute, I'd like you to share this item with your friends.

To see the website, go to

A note to anyone passing thru TONGA
This is to inform all members of the public that His Majesty's Cabinet on 21st
October 2016 has approved daylight savings in Tonga and to be effective from
Sunday the 6th of November 2016 and end from Sunday the 15th of January 2017.
This time change is to extend daylight hours in the evenings to allow the public
to make better use of day light hours for economic and social activities.
At 2am on Sunday 6th of November 2016 members of the public are advised to move
their watches and clocks ahead to 3am. This notice has been copied from today's
Tongan Marine forecast at

The Tropics
TC MEARI is located east of Philippines but not expected to affect land. And
there are a couple of interesting lows in the NW Pacific that are not expected
to come to much.
Rain accumulation maps looks more intensive in the Philippines area and along
the ITCZ across the Pacific, and less sin the South pacific
Rain for the past fortnight can be seen at

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
SPCZ this week is expected to build especially over Samoa area and by mid-week
may produce a tropical LOW that will then travel Southeast across Southern Cooks
by end of the week. The Low should carry squally showers with 30 to 40 knot wind
gusts. It may affect French Polynesia after 14 Nov. Avoid.
Tropical accumulated rainfall for next week can be seen at

Subtropical ridge (STR)
A HIGH is travelling east across Tasman Sea along 25 to 30S from Sunday night to
be east of NZ from Friday.
Next Tasman High is a brief one on sat/Sun, crossing NZ on MONDAY 14 and
lingering east of NZ on Tue 15 Nov.
Not strong enough this week to produce any squash zones in the tropics.

This is the time of year that yachts are staging themselves in Tonga (or Fiji or
New Caledonia) and waiting for the right weather pattern for sailing to NZ or
The Island Cruising Association are supporting the All Points Rally, from all
major parts of South Pacific to Opua ending in a seminar 16 to 26 November in
Boats joining the rally are assisted with weather info, resources and planning
tools to help make the passage to NZ as easy as possible. On arrival
participants are welcomed to Opua and entertained with a week of entertainment
and seminars on a range of topics. This rally is FREE thanks to the assistance
of Main Sponsors Bay of Islands Marina and Boatyard and the Opua business
community. See

Travel between Tropics and NZ:
The arrival times to avoid because of passing fronts are 7/8 Nov, 12/13 Nov and
16/17 November.
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