Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing weather around the South pacific

16 July 2017

Bob blog 16 July 2017

Compiled Sun 16 July 2017

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

Tonight HURRICANE FERNANDA is travelling west-northwards away from the Mexican west coast. And it is being followed by a tropical depression.
It is vaguely heading towards Hawaii, but at its current pace will not reach those longitudes until 24 July and is likely to fade away by then.
And there is TALAS in the China Sea. The models are picking it may travel west across SE Asia , but will probably fade away inland. Cyclone tracks may be seen at

Last week's rain map, compared with the week before, from, shows an enhancement in the rain in Solomon islands, and relaxing rain along the ITCZ.

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ starts this week reasonably active around Solomon Islands, and is expected to slowly weaken during the week.
A passing trough, associated with a front in the Southern Ocean, is expected to go east across New Caledonia area on local Thursday and then move onto the Tongan area on local Saturday preceded by NE winds and followed by southerlies.

Subtropical ridge (STR)
HIGH located over Northern NZ tonight is expected to travel east along 33s to east of NZ this week. It may build to over 1040 when it gets east of 140W after Friday and the should have a squash zone strong SE winds and over 3m swell on its northern side, around the Gambier Islands.

Australia to New Caledonia:
A trough is expected is to travel east across the eastern seaboard on Tuesday night local, followed by strong SW winds and large swells on Wednesday. It should be ok to depart on Thursday but the voyage will need to go ese at first and allow for ESE wind after 158E.

Departing northern NZ to the north or east for the tropics:
North to NW winds over northern NZ until a cold front crosses the area on Wednesday/Thursday. It may be ok for departure on Friday if you don't mind SW winds and 3 metres swells. Otherwise better to wait until Saturday.

French Polynesia to the west:
This looks to be a good week to go west. The SPCZ is weak and the subtropical ridge is not expected to produce much of a squash zone on this path - however you may get swell over 3 metres on Thursday UTC.
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check to see what I offer.

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