WEATHERGRAM
YOTREPS
Compiled Sun 30 Dec 2018
Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.
Here’s one of the original verses from Robby Burns “Auld Lang Syne”
We twa hae paidl'd i' the burn
Frae mornin' sun till dine.
But seas between us braid hae roar'd
Sin auld lang syne.
Or in modern English:
We two have paddled in the stream,
From morning sun till dine;
But seas between us broad have roared
Since long ago
So, here’s my wish to you for 2019: May there be more fun paddling in the stream.
THE TROPICS
Latest cyclone activity and TCFP tropical Cyclone Formation Potential may be seen at www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html or tropic.ssec.wisc.edu
With the MJO of increased activity making its way across northern Australia eastwards to the western Pacific, tropical depressions are starting to develop and the next few weeks are looking to be busy.
Tropical Depression USMAN has been very slow-moving over Philippines, and associated heavy rain has a death toll of 16 people so far. Track map from www.rappler.com/nation/special-coverage/weather-alert/219814-tropical-depression-usman-pagasa-forecast-december-28-2018-2pm
In the South Pacific, there are 5 depressions at present.
94P and 98P are likely to deepen and travel SE. 94P/TD03F is likely to visit Fiji on 31 Dec/ 1 Jan and southern Tonga on Wed 2 Jan. Followed by 98P over Fiji on Friday 6 Jan and central Tonga on Sat/Sun 5/6 Jan.
95P is expected to deepen in Gulf of Carpentaria over next few days and then go east and deepen over Coral Sea, possibly making landfall near Bowen on Sunday 6 Jan.
96S and 97P are not expected to deepen.
WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ is at peak activity this week and there is a good chance that tropical depressions may deepen into cyclones. Today a depression has formed to SE of Tonga , on the southeast end of the SPCZ, and this is expected to travel southeastwards, laying a trail of lower pressures so that moisture from the SPCZ can fine its way into the more southern latitudes.
Subtropical ridge (STR)
HIGH near 40S to east of NZ is expected to be slow-moving until Wednesday and then move off to the southeast.
HIGH in Tasman Sea near 35S is expected to remain slow-moving until Thursday and then be joined by another HIGH from Tasmania and the combo should move over NZ on sat/sun 5/6 Jan.
There is likely to be a squash zone of enhanced SE winds on the north side of these HIGHS. .
Troughs around Tasman/New Zealand
Fronts should visit the South Island this week and finally be followed by a southerly change reaching the North Island on Friday.
Between Tropics and Australia.
With a high in the Tasman Sea and low pressures in the Coral Sea, expect fresh to strong easterly or ESE winds between New Caledonia and Queensland.
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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212
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