Bobblog 16 Dec

WEATHERGRAM

YOTREPS

Compiled Sun 16 Dec 2018

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

 

LISA BLAIR is expected to reach Sydney on Monday, after departing from there on 14 October, and should then complete her adventure to be the first woman to do a solo unassisted non-stop sailing circumnavigation of Australia, to raise awareness of the need for Climate Action Now.

Her tracker site is gis.ee/lb/ Shows that she was hove-to in a gale last night but is now making sail for Sydney in easing conditions.

Her vessel is named S/V CAN standing for Climate Action Now.

MetBob has proudly been sending her daily weather comments. It is an honour for me to be involved in a campaign that raises awareness of the need for Climate action.

It is fitting for Lisa that the COP24 UN Climate conference in Poland has finally today been adopted. OK, it’s really only a starting point, and some are still grumbling it isn’t ambitious enough, but it’s the start of a rule book.

We need to heed what our kids are saying about the need for action. See a 15yo Swedish schoolgirl talk to COP24 at tinyurl.com/yaryncz6 (this comes courtesy of Bernie Sanders’ Democracy Now Facebook site).

“It is the sufferings of the many which pay for the luxuries of the few.”

 

If you agree that we should slow down our use of fossil fuel, for the benefit of the future weather, and for our children’s sake, and have been thrilled by the adventurous spirit of LISA and CAN in their circumnavigation of Australia, then please visit her website and read her blogs at lisablairsailstheworld.com/. Yes, a book is coming, covering her circumnavigation of Antarctica.

 

THE TROPICS

Latest cyclone activity and TCFP tropical Cyclone Formation Potential as seen at www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html or use tropic.ssec.wisc.edu

There is a twin of cyclones in north and South Indian Ocean, with TC PHETHAI moving north onto east coast of India in next few days, and TC KENANGA moving southwest over open sea in South Indian Ocean.

 

TC OWEN did redevelop in gulf of Carpentaria and has now returned southeast back to east of the Australian coast, but has lost its support supporting structure and is now unravelling. Its energy managed to activate and deepen the heat low over interior of Victoria/New South Wales last few days, producing enhanced NE winds offshore for Lisa Blair on SV CAN, and also drenching rain to places such as Melbourne on Friday, and golf ball-sized hail to Sydney on Saturday. I suppose one pro is that its rain has helped dampen the bush in northern Queensland after recent bushfires,

 

An MJO episode of enhanced convection is travelling eastwards this week across Indonesia and north Australia, and likely to move into Pacific Ocean later this month, increasing the risk of tropical cyclone formation, as can be seen in the formation Potential map.

 

WEATHER ZONES

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

The SPCZ is active between Papua New Guinea/central and northern Vanuatu/ Fiji and occasionally Tonga /Samoa. From early in the week a low of tropical origin is expected to drift off to the southeast of Tonga and deepen in the mid latitudes.

 

Subtropical ridge (STR)

HIGH over NZ tonight is expected to move off to the east next few days along 35S.

Part of this high is expected to reform near 25S to NE of NZ by mid-week and then slide to Southeast so that by weekend of 22/23Dec there may be a squash zone of near strong SE winds between Tahiti and Tonga.

 

Troughs around Tasman/New Zealand

Trough with a cold southerly wind change expected to reach southern NZ on Monday and then go northeast and reach North island as a low on Thursday.

Low over interior Victoria/New South Wales is expected to deepen off Bass Strait on Thursday, then travel east and cross the South Island on Saturday with wind and rain affecting all NZ.

 

Between Tropics and Australia.

With the remains of TC OWEN hovering off the northern Queensland coast and an STR near or south of 25/30South we can expect moderate SE winds between New Caledonia and Brisbane for most of this week.

 

From Tahiti to Tonga

Trough over Tonga /Niue early in the week, then OK, but enhanced SE winds on weekend of 22/23 Dec

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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.

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Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.

Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212

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