Bob Blog 28 May 2019

WEATHERGRAM

YOTREPS

Compiled Sun 28 May 2019

 

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

 

THE TROPICS

The 3pm analysis from Fiji Meteorological Service today shows some convergence zone, a band of trade winds, and that Big fat High we mentioned last week is now moving off now to east of NZ.

 

There were around 20 yachts caught in North Minerva reef is last week s squash on. It’s easing now and yachts are stirring to get to Fiji (or Vanuatu). Eastely swell around the area was 3.5m 7 seconds earlier today, and is still around 2.7 m tonight, expected to ease to 2.3m on Monday.

 

The winds are expected to be from NE in the area on Mon/Tue/Wed, turning to light SW/W/NW on Thursday/Friday, so those heading for Tonga should wait for this weak passing trough until Thursday and then have a few days of tail winds.

 

Voyages to Suva or places further west may be able to take off on Monday. As for Savusavu, may be able to go on Mon or Tue, fall off to the west in the NE winds and when they finally swing easterly further north, go more direct

 

There are no cyclones at present, but there is p tropical depression off the central American west coast. The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and TCFP tropical Cyclone Formation Potential at www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html

 

WEATHER ZONES

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

The SPCZ is mainly from Solomons to the Samoa area this week.

There is also an active convergence zone lurking to south of Tahiti and the Society Islands.

 

Subtropical ridge (STR)

HIGH now east of NZ is expected to linger swell south of French Polynesia this week with a squash zone of enhanced trade winds on its northern side until Wednesday.

 

Australia to Noumea

From Brisbane area to New Caledonia: There are useful Southwest to south winds from Mon to Thursday.

 

NZ to tropics:

A series of troughs is expected across Tasman Sea and NZ this week.

One front is expected to visit Opua on Tuesday, and the local forecast is for northwest winds rising to 25 knots on Tuesday morning with rough sea, easing early Wednesday to southwest 15 knots. So, a Tuesday departure might have a bumpy start.

However, this may change, and, depending on tomorrow’s data, a Tuesday departure might be better than a Wednesday departure.

Next trough is likely to bring strong disturbed westerly winds to Northland from Thursday 30 until at least Queen’s Birthday Monday.

A Wednesday departure should be able to get far enough north to avoid these strong winds.

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