BobBlog 19 May

WEATHERGRAM

Compiled Sun 19 May 2019

 

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

 

THE TROPICS

There is a tropical low NW of Fiji, called TD12F by Fiji and 95P by Guam, slowly drifting SE. It is expected to visit Vanua Levu on Wednesday and may either then linger as a trough somewhere near Fiji, or drift off SW towards NZ, or fade where it is. At this stage I’m not sure which option it may take.

 

Viewable at www.met.gov.fj/index.php?page=trackmap

 

It is quite active at present as seen at www.meteo.nc/nouvelle-caledonie/observations/images-satellite and there is a possibility it may be be briefly named as a Cat 1 cyclone

But it is in a moderate sheared environment  (differing winds which tend to rip it apart) and there is high shear on its south side with dry air, which means as it comes south it dies. See www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20036.txt

 

If it’s remains linger to east of Fiji then we have the makings of a squash zone between Tonga and Minerva

 

A HIGH is expected to travel east along 35S from NZ eastwards from Friday 24 May to Wed 29 May. It is the combination of this High and that lingering trough which is expected to make a squash zone with strong E to SE winds and rough seas near Tonga to Minerva from Friday 24 May until maybe the middle of the following week. This squash zone is worth avoiding.

 

The squash zone may be seen at windy.com

 

There are no cyclones at present. The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and TCFP tropical Cyclone Formation Potential at www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html

No cyclones around, but it interesting to see some potential off the Nicaragua coast so early in their season.

 

WEATHER ZONES

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

The SPCZ has weakened into three different zones: one in the Coral Sea, one over Tuvalu by mid-week, and the third, with today’s depression NW of Fiji shifting to between Samoa /Niue and Tonga by mid-week.

 

HIGH is expected to travel east along 30 to 40S across Tasman Sea from Monday reaching NZ on Thursday then going further east of NZ from Friday 24 May until early/mid the following week. There is likely to be a squash zone of strong SE wind sand rough seas on the north side of this High between Tonga and Minerva next weekend. Avoid.

 

Australia/Tasman Sea / New Zealand

From Brisbane area to New Caledonia: Trade winds weakening on Thu/Fri and may be light winds/southerlies from Friday 24 to Tuesday 28 May offering a reasonable voyage.

From NZ to tropics: Departures early in the week to Tonga are likely to encounter squash zone near Minerva/Tonga due to combination of a stalled trough near Fiji and a HGH travelling to east of NZ late this week. Better to stay-put until squash-zone threat weaken.

Possibly Ok for getting to Fiji and looks good next few days for departure to New Caledonia.

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Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212

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