Bob Blog 1 Nov 2020

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

Compiled Sun 25 Oct 2020

REVIEW OF THE LAST MONTH (October 2020)

La NINA (the cool eastern equatorial Pacific) has intensified and widens during the past month. This means the coming cyclone season is likely to be less than normal for Cook Island s and French Polynesia, but it may be more active for New Caledonia. The South Pacific subtropical ridge line drifted south, bringing blockings Highs around northern NZ.

 

The monsoon is heading for Indonesia. The sub-tropical ridges in northern and southern hemisphere have shifted pole-wards and strengthened.

Zooming into the NZ area, and comparing monthly anomalies from last month with now, shows that

The 1015 isobar has drifted south over Queensland. The sub-tropical ridge is much the same intensity. The Antarctic high has weakened.

 

The Tropics

ZETA hit US Gulf Coast and inland hard last few days; nearly two million without power. That’s the Greek alphabet used up, but cyclones are still brewing and latest is called Twenty_Nine.

Super Typhoon GONI (local name ROLLY) is hitting Philippines tonight, one million people have been evacuated (so far) but maybe up to 31 million will be affected. ATSANI may hit the northern tip of the Philippines.

 

WEATHER ZONES

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

SPCZ is expected to stretch from Solomon Islands to Vanuatu then Samoa with a tail southeast to south of French Polynesia

Trough over New Caledonia from Mon to Wednesday and then should go southeast to northern NZ by Friday. Also, a low may form south of French Polynesia late in the week and go south.

 

Subtropical ridge (STR)

HIGH 1030hpa is acting as a block east of north Island near 160W until Tuesday,

Another HIGH east of South Island on Monday should grow to 1032hPa as it travels east along 40 to 30S reaching 160W by end of the week. This is likely to enhance the trade winds on its northern side.

 

Tasman troughs

LOW 1010 in Tasman sea moving slowly east along 30S should reach northern NZ by Friday. Trough likely over NZ on Saturday, followed by a SW flow.

 

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