Bob Blog 29 Nov

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

Compiled Sun 29 Nov 2020

 

Australian Heat wave

A depression (low pressure centre) crossing inland Australia is expected to bring a five to six-day heatwave for millions of people in eastern Australia, with exceptional temperatures and duration.

See www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-28/first-heatwave-of-australian-summer-2020/12928746

Despite the strong La Nia in the Pacific, rains have held off over northern Australia due to the recent dry phase of the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation). However, the wet phase of the MJO is expected to move in for early to mid-December, bringing tropical rain to North Australia.

 

The Tropics

The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and Tropical Cyclone Potential is from www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html

Things are quiet for now with no cyclones around but some potential areas for formation around Indonesia/Philippines.

 

WEATHER ZONES

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

SPCZ is slightly north of its normal position from Solomon Islands to Samoa and extends further east than normal across French Polynesia.

A trough is moving east across s the Tongan/Niue area today/tomorrow, and another around mid-week.

 

Subtropical ridge (STR)

HIGH 1016 in north Tasman Sea is expected to travel east along 25S and fade to north of NZ on local Monday.

Another High is expected to cross Tasmania on Monday and then cross the Tasman Sea reaching central NZ on Wednesday then drifting off to north.

Another High should enter Tasman Sea on Thursday and cross northern NZ on Saturday.

 

NZ/Tasman troughs

LOW deepening to 986 off Tasmania tonight expected to travel across central NZ on local Monday and move off on Tuesday brining large swells and followed by vigorous southerly winds.

Low around 950hPa in Southern Ocean near 58S on Wednesday expected to travel east past south of NZ on Thursday/Friday with westerly gale for southern NZ.

 

Fiji/Tonga to NZ:

Avoid arriving on Monday 7 Dec, otherwise mostly OK.

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