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Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing weather around the South pacific

05 September 2021

Bob Blog 5 sept

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 05 September 2021

REVIEW OF THE LAST MONTH (August 2021)
SST: The warming trend in North Pacific shifted northwards during August
from Japan to the Aleutians, with a warm pool lingering north of Hawaii.
There as some cooling around the eastern equatorial Pacific but not enough
to form a LA NINA. Not much change in the Southern Hemisphere.

ISOBARS: The northern subtropical ridge has weakened and gone south in the
Atlantic. In the southern hemisphere the subtropical ridge has weakened in
the Indian Ocean but intensified and gone south over Australia and NZ. The
Antarctic HIGH has weakened.

In a reversal of July's anomolies, pressures in August were ABOVE NORMAL
over Tasman Sea/NZ, central south Atlantic and south of Japan. August also
brought more lows than normal to Canada and western North America.

Zooming into the NZ area
Over the Tasman Sea, despite the higher valued isobars the pressure
gradient/wind flow is much the same as last month. The seasonal outlook is
for more westerly winds in the coming months.

TROPICS
Hurricane IDA took a damaging track across USA with a death toll of near 60
and flash flooding in New York.
LARRY is in mid north Atlantic and should peel off to the northeast, but its
remnants may sideswipe Novia Scotia.

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
Part of the SPCZ is over Fiji tonight and travelling southeast where it
should form a low near 25S by Tuesday.
Otherwise, the SPCZ this week stretches from Solomona to Tuvalu to Samoa.

HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH over 1030 east of NZ expected to travel east along 35 to 40S with a
squash zone of enhanced easterly to northeasterly winds near 25 to 30S.
LOW below 1005 in southwestern Tasman Sea tonight and associated trough
expected to cross NZ on Mon/Tues followed by vigorous westerly flow then
another trough on Friday, followed by SW flow on Saturday.
HIGH 1030 expected by Thursday to travel east into northern Tasman Sea along
30S south passing north of NZ of NZ on Friday.
Lookout for a deepening LOW to form in Tasman Sea on 12 Sept and cross
northern NZ on 13-14 Sep. Avoid.
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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
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