Bobgram

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.

Compiled Sunday 24 March 2024


Saturday 23 March 2024 was World Meteorological Day.
The theme this year is AT THE FRONTLINE OF CLIMATE CHANGE
They have just completed a report of the state of the climate at the
end of 2023
This can be seen at youtu.be/ES7eKWRRJ0o

The report starts with the alarming record breaking of a warming
planet but ends with the hope of rapidly increasing sustainable energy
sources, reducing emissions, and increasing investment in climate
adaptation.

TROPICS

Late reports from Mozambique say Tropical Storm Filipo killed one
person and injured seven others when it passed through the south of
the country during the previous week.

. Category-2 Cyclone Megan swamped a remote part of far northern
Australia, along the coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria.

. Tropical Storm Neville strengthened to hurricane force over the
eastern Indian Ocean.

The MJO pattern moved over the South Pacific last week and is still
around this week, but nothing much has been triggered. We can now
expect a few quiet weeks in the tropical South Pacific, and there is
still time for another MJO cycle in mid-April before ethe normal end
of this cyclone season.

WEATHER ZONES

The South Pacific Convergence zone is starting to weaken and narrow
and stretches from Coral Sea to north of Vanuatu and across Fiji and
southern Tonga. Tropical Low L1 should travel off to the southeast and
take with it much of the SPCZ energy.

There is another convergence zone this week between Tuvalu and
Tokelau/Suwarrow, and a "mirror ITCZ" along around 3 to 7S between
Galapagos and Marquesas.

HIGHS and LOWS

HIGH H1 is expected to travel eastwards along around 40S and well
south of Tahiti.

LOW L2 is expected to travel quickly eastwards across south Tasman Sea
along 50S next few days and bring strong west to SW winds over central
and southern NZ mid-week.

This is expected to quickly be followed by L3 travelling NE from
Southern Ocean along east-of -NZ on Good Friday and then deepening
east of the NI over the Easter weekend, moving off early next week.
Avoid.

Panama to Marquesas:

The northerly winds in Panama gulf are expected to return from around
Sat 30 March for a few days. try and arrange departure then. .

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