Bobgram 5 May

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 5 MAY 2024

A review of last month's weather
is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the isobars
and streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at
youtu.be/jVwSiLqZk_4
April was a quiet month in the South Pacific tropics. There were two
very weak MJO phases, but they didn't produce much.

Sea Surface temperature anomalies from psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml
Regionally, the warmer Atlantic is a worry and a sign of a big cyclone
season coming there next few months. The seas around NZ are now near
normal. There is a build-up pf cool water near Galapagos. The
equatorial current is running like a wide river taking warm water
westwards. A sign that El Nino is over.

Average isobars for past month (below) From
www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/fnl/slp_30b.fnl.htmlclip_image008

During April the subtropical ridge in the Southern Hemisphere
strengthened.

The anomaly pressure pattern for April shows HIGHS south of Australia
and in Southeast Pacific with a trough in-between, south of NZ. The
TROUGH north of Fiji to Tahiti has deepened.

In April the average weather map had a stronger subtropical ridge,
typical of mid autumn.
The 1015 isobar has shifted north over Australia and onto New
Caledonia., but remains in much the same place near 47S. f

TROPICS
Again, there are no named storms. The place of greatest expected
potential is now skirting the equator around New Guinea.

WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is active over New Guinea and from
Solomon Islands to northern Vanuatu. Trade winds are expected to
prevail south of 15S.

HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 east of the North Island is expected to travel east from 35S
to 40S and weaken.

Low L1 is expected to form to NE of NZ by end of Tuesday, along with
strong easterly winds on its south side and a lull on its north side.
It should travel east and then SE allowing its tropical trough to
linger rover Islands between Tonga and Southern Cooks. Avoid.

HIGH H2 is expected to stall south of Tasmania.

For NZ: a passing trough is expected on Monday and another on
Wednesday/Thursday.

Off East Australia: Next offshore trough is likely around Sunday 12
May.

Panama to Marquesas:
If heading south and you wish to start with northerly winds, then do
so before local Tuesday.
Squally doldrums from 6N to 2N.


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