Bobgram

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 19 MAY 2024

Chilly Chile

The world's oceans have been absorbing so much heat in the past year
that May 2023 to May 2024 has broken the record with the highest
measured "World Sea Surface temperature" on record for a whole
contiguous year (https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/)

Along with this record areas north of the equator have recently
suffered from the hottest weather ever recorded.

Despite all this, residents of Santiago, Chile, are suffering from the
longest Southern Hemisphere cold snap on record during autumn. "Since
1950 onwards, i.e., in the last 74 years, we have not had such an
intense cold spell in May, said University of Santiago climatologist
Raul Cordero.

Scientists have been researching the cooling ocean around the south of
South America for a while. It has been called "the most important
unanswered question in climate science".


"It's about 1 degree Celsius, it's not a lot but recall that the
planet has been warming, now, more than one degree, so it's a huge
departure from what the rest of the planet is doing."

One theory is that the "cold tongue" is melt water from Antarctica's
rapidly disappearing icepack. Maybe this melt water is being
transported by winds and ocean currents. Much of the cold water comes
from directly south of New Zealand.

So as the cool pool accumulates around Chile, a corresponding warm
pool accumulates further west, near Aotearoa/ New Zealand. At this
stage we do not know the implications for our future weather.

TROPICS
Cyclone Ialy is travelling northwards and may make landfall in
Somalia.

The place of greatest potential for formation this week is skirting
the equator around New Guinea.

WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is active over New Guinea and from
Solomon Islands to southern Vanuatu, to south of Fiji.
A passing trough is expected to travel east-wards across Tonga
mid-week.

HIGHS and LOWS

HIGH H1 south of French Polynesia has been producing a squash zone of
enhanced wind
and swell near 20 to 25S last few days and as it moves off conditions
are relaxing.

LOW L1 is well east of NZ at present and expected to travel SE to
south of H1.

Low L2 is expected to deepen in the Tasman Sea on Monday and travel
east
across the North Island on Tuesday then go off to the east and
southeast.
It is followed by a southerly flow for a few days. Avoid.

High H2 is expected to cross Tasmania late in the week and then move
into southern Tasman Sea.

Panama to Marquesas:
Light winds for starters. Squally doldrums from 6N to 2N, intense
between 5N and 3N.

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