Bobgram 11 August

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 11 August 2024

The AMAZON as a measure of Climate change

A recent NATURE article
www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-58782-5#citeas
offers data that can, visually anyway, show what maybe the impact of
global climate change over the past century and its increasing impact
over the past 20 years.

Showing he height of the Amazon level has been measured at MANUS near
the centre of the Amazon for over100 years.
This shows the annual cycle and also a possible sunspot cycle.
I've added the red and green trend arrows to the article's data graph
shown in my illustrated edition.
The article concentrates on the increasing annual cycle and links the
record breaking drought on 23 Oct 2023 to the EL NINO then rampant and
also to the generally warmer than normal Pacific Ocean.

A REGIONAL DROUGHT is affecting the New Zealand Hydro lakes
NIWA (NZ) say that during the month of July 2024 "mean sea level air
pressure (MSLP) was higher than normal over and to the south of
Aotearoa New Zealand. This was associated with more south-easterly
winds than normal. A large and slow-moving high pressure system was
present over New Zealand for much of July, leading to an extended
period of fine and settled weather, and regular heavy frosts for
inland areas. The strength of the high pressure peaked on 10 July,
when Ranfurly registered a MSLP of 1046.5 hPa - this is mainland New
Zealand's highest MSLP measurement on record."

This drop in input into the hydro lakes was enough to almost triple
the spot price of electricity in the past month.

The Higher pressures in July around Aotearoa New Zealand were just a
regional impact .

TROPICS
When DEBBY made landfall over Florida, it brought some unprecedented
flooding. . Then there were four named storms churning the Pacific at
the same time off Mexico and this is the highest number for the region
in 50 years. Only Carlotta lived long enough to travel significantly
westward toward Hawaii.

Tonight MARIA is making landfall over northern Japan, and there are 3
tropical depressions with one following Maria, one in the NE Pacific
and one in the Atlantic.

WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is increasing in width and
intensity and stretches from Solomon Islands to Tokelau to Suwarrow. A
passing trough is expected over Southern Cooks late in the week..

HIGHS and LOWS
Low L1 is travelling northeast on Monday to east of NZ bringing a
showery southerly flow.

From Tuesday to Thursday HIGH H1 should travel NE across northern NZ.,
a good time to arrive. Then this HIGH should travel east along 30S
with a small squash zone of stronger easterly winds crossing Niue ,
for example, on local Thursday/Friday.

Low L2 should start forming in Coral Sea from Tuesday and deepen off
Brisbane from Thursday then travel southeast across NZ on Saturday
preceded by strong NE winds, accompanied by heavy rain and followed by
southerly winds. AVOID arriving in NZ as this FRONT passes.

The models are in disagreement for next week's Tasman Sea pattern, so
seek updates for that.

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