Bobgram 25 Aug

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday25 August 2024

ATLANTICCYCLONE SEASON - why so quiet?

At the start of this year's cyclone season a few months a go the
initial outlook was for a busy and active season with between 17 and
25 named storms. Now we are approaching the half-way mark and there
have only been 5 named storms. What gives?

Well, BERYL (June 28-July 11) had lots of cyclone energy, so the
accumulated cyclone energy graph shows we are having an active season.

Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) this season has been historically
high despite the perceived slow start to the season. Thanks to (Kim
Wood/University of Arizona at kouya.has.arizona.edu/tropics/index.html

Also the current pause in Atlantic cyclone activity may be related to
what is called an ATLANTIC NINA or cooling of the seas surface due to
a zone of stronger trade winds triggering marked upwelling as show
near 1 in the Sea surface anomaly map

The cooling in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific indicates a trend
towards LA NINA. We are NOT there yet, and the pace of cooling has
recently stalled.

Maybe in September this cooling pace will resume, also there may be a
flurry of North Atlantic cyclones.

TROPICS

. A near miss on eastern Japan by Category-4 Typhoon Ampil spared the
region notable damage. . After making a direct hit on Bermuda with
Category-2 force, Hurricane Ernesto brushed Newfoundland and was
predicted to bring heavy rain and high winds to Ireland, the U.K. and
parts of Western Europe.

. Gilma reached hurricane force, moving westward over the Pacific
Ocean.

WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is increasing in width and
intensity and stretches from Solomon Islands to Tokelau /Samoa.
Another convergence zone over Fiji Sunday night a d Tonga on Monday os
associated with a Low L1 which should form south of Tonga on Monday
and then trave ESE during the week as a weak trough. The strong winds
and large swells which bothered Fresch Polynesia last week due to a
squash zone are expected to relax enough to allow travel westwards
from local TUESDAY. t

HIGHS and LOWS
This coming week should see a steady procession of HIGHs and LOWs
eastwards in the mid-latitudes.

HIGH H1 gave French Polynesia a squash zone for the last few days and
is now moving off to the south relaxing the pressure gradient.

HIGH H2 is expected to travel east along 25S, into north Tasman Sea

Further south a disturbed westerly flow should bring passing fronts to
Aotearoa NZ especially on Tuesday and Thursday/Friday then Sunday and
again on following Tuesday. Avoid arriving those days.

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