Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 24 November 2024
NIWA'S climate outlook for next three months for South Pacific
FROM A NEUTRAL NOVEMBER TO A LA NINA IN DECEMBER
These notes come from NIWA at their web site at
https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/island-climate-update
Quote >>>>>
There is a 60% chance that La Niña will develop by January 2025. Tropical Pacific trade winds will continue to push the ocean in a La Niña-like direction during December.
As of 19 November, the traditional 30-day Niño 1+2 Index anomaly was -0.12˚C, within the neutral range. The 30-day NINO3.4 Index anomaly (in the central equatorial Pacific) was -0.22˚C, also in the neutral range.
An alternative measure of central Pacific SSTs, called the relative oceanic Niño Index, has had an average anomaly of –0.84˚C over the last 30 days (to 19 November) and is more aligned with La Niña-like oceanic conditions.
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was in the neutral range during September-November (+0.1), while the November value was -0.1 (in the neutral range), a decrease since last month.
The subsurface equatorial Pacific continues to be 2˚C to 4˚C cooler than average just below the surface in the east of the basin.
Above average upper oceanic heat content continues in western parts of the Pacific basin. The West Pacific Warm Pool is continuing to become more unusually warm, which is also reflective of the potential development of La Niña.
The South Pacific Convergence Zone was located slightly south of its climatological normal position during November.
During December-February, model guidance favours an enhancement in convective forcing over the western Pacific and Maritime Continent, consistent with a developing La Niña. This may lead to enhanced rainfall for some countries such as Palau, Federated States of Micronesia, Marshall Islands, and southern Papua New Guinea east to Fiji
Tropical cyclone season continues through April 2025. While no activity is forecast in the short-term, it is important to remain vigilant and prepared as tropical cyclone season is now underway.
End quote>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
A LA NINA episode shifts the South Pacific convergence zone southwards, as shown in the expected rainfall map for the next few months
This shows the wettest area in the southern hemisphere, a proxy for the heart of the South Pacific Convergence zone, to be New Caledonia and south Vanuatu to Fiji.
So, the "juiciest" latitudes are likely to be between 15 and 20S, and cyclones forming in that latitude belt might not have enough time to mature before leaving the tropics.
TROPICS
Finally, the recent brush of cyclones seems to have come to an end.
Recently, at least 10 people died in storm-related accidents in the northern Philippines as Typhoon Man-yi became the sixth consecutive tropical system to hit the country in less than a month. Man-yi was also one of four November cyclones to exist simultaneously in the western Pacific—the first such occurrence since records began in 1951. • Tropical Storm Sara left at least four people dead from flash flooding across Nicaragua and Honduras. • Former Category-4 Cyclone Bheki skirted Mauritius and Réunion as a tropical storm.
The MJO, which boosts tropical activity is expected to make its way across northern Australia in early December and then into the Pacific by mid-December. This is likely to increase the risk of cyclone formation.
For a Time -Longitude prognosis from https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
WEATHER ZONES
The wind accumulation shows a calm zone near northern New Zealand associated with the subtropical ridge. Also, it shows windy zones associated with lows L1, L2 and L3.
The South Pacific Convergence zone has a northern branch which extends from Solomons to Samoa to Northern Cooks, and a southern branch associated with Low L1 south of Tahiti and Low L2 near Fiji.
HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 is staying quasi stationary near 40S well to southeast of Tahiti., with a subtropical Low L1 on its western shoulder.
HIGH H2 is up and down in strength and is quasi stationary to northeast of NZ with a strong ridge into the Tasman Sea. This should keep troughs away from northern NZ this week. It has a Low L2 on its NW shoulder forming near Fiji mid-week. As L2 come south its will be pushed by upper winds towards the west.
Low L3 I expected to cross the Aussie bight during the week and end up this weekend as a trough in South Tasman Sea.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
24 November 2024
17 November 2024
Bobgram
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Minerva reefs
The Minerva reefs are found two days sailing southwest of Tongatapu,
or a quarter of the way to New Zealand. They are a popular staging
ground for yachts, a place to stay while waiting for the weather to be
agreeable for sailing on to New Zealand. As I write this there are a
dozen vessels waiting in the North Minerva reef. It has the added
attraction of being around 23:40degress south, so it is just south of
the Tropic of Capricorn (23 degrees 26 minute 22 seconds south), and
so it "outside the tropics".
On the Flotsam page of Gulf harbour Radio
www.ghradio.co.nz/flotsam.html is an article written by Rich and
Michelle on SV Pogeyan. This amazing article describes what they have
learned over many visits and weeks exploring both North and South
Minerva. Rich has given me permission to share some of the article
with you here, and I recommend that you go to the Gulf harbour radio
web site to read the rest.
Republic of Minerva Ruins
The Wikipedia article for Minerva Reefs provides a summary the
misguided attempt by Michael Oliver (born Moses Olitsky) to create his
own idea of a Libertarian paradise at Minerva North reef. For an
in-depth account of the whole strange affair, see "How to Rule Your
Own Country" by Harry Hobbs. In 1971, Oliver's shell company, called
Ocean Life Research Foundation, transported barges of sand from Fiji
with the goal of raising 2000 acres above the high tide line. After
building some concrete structures and covering 7 acres with sand, they
ran out of money AND attracted the attention of the neighbouring
Pacific Island nations - especially Tonga. Within a year, Tonga
destroyed all the work and built their own "permanent structure above
the tide line". At that point Tonga declared the reefs to be their
territory. Some of the sand appears to remain at the Southwest corner
of the reef and forms large sand bars that dry out at low tide.
There's also a building foundation and several huge chunks of concrete
that appear to be the result of the Tongan demolition work.
TROPICS
A seemingly never-ending parade of powerful typhoons continued to
batter the northern Philippines for a second consecutive month, with
Yinxing and Toraji being closely followed by Category-4 Usagi.
Strengthening Tropical Storm Man-yi to the east was predicted to
strike with hurricane force during the following weekend. The cyclones
have flooded villages and caused extensive damage to homes and
infrastructure and have killed at least 151 people.
SARA is about to cross the Yucatan peninsular.
BHEKI is in the South Indian Ocean
The MJO, which boosts tropical activity is also in the Indian Ocean
this week.
WEATHER ZONES
The wind accumulation shows a calm zone in the North Tasman Sea,
showing the main position of the subtropical ridge. Further north
there is a squash zone of enhanced trade winds in the Coral Sea and
around Vanuatu.
The South Pacific Convergence zone extends from Solomons to Samoa and
then southeast to Southern Cook Islands. It occasionally shifts south
across Fiji and Tonga.
A Low is expected to form near 25S 140W on the SPCZ and then deepen as
it goes south.
The MJO is now in the Indian Ocean, and that means the SPCZ is rather
weak for a while the week or two. However, SPCZ is expected to shift
south over Tonga this weekend and maybe form a tropical Low there
around 20 November, perhaps.
HIGHS and LOWS
There is a Low L1 forming on Monday between Fiji and NZ and this
should move off to the southeast to east of NZ. This system maintains
southerly winds between Fiji and NZ until Wednesday. Avoid.
HIGH H1 over southern NZ is expected to travel off to the east along
45S allowing L1 to drift south along its western side. Then L2 can
travel eastwards across NZ on Thursday
HIGH H2 is expected to travel slowly Northeast across the Tasman
reaching northern NZ this weekend.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Minerva reefs
The Minerva reefs are found two days sailing southwest of Tongatapu,
or a quarter of the way to New Zealand. They are a popular staging
ground for yachts, a place to stay while waiting for the weather to be
agreeable for sailing on to New Zealand. As I write this there are a
dozen vessels waiting in the North Minerva reef. It has the added
attraction of being around 23:40degress south, so it is just south of
the Tropic of Capricorn (23 degrees 26 minute 22 seconds south), and
so it "outside the tropics".
On the Flotsam page of Gulf harbour Radio
www.ghradio.co.nz/flotsam.html is an article written by Rich and
Michelle on SV Pogeyan. This amazing article describes what they have
learned over many visits and weeks exploring both North and South
Minerva. Rich has given me permission to share some of the article
with you here, and I recommend that you go to the Gulf harbour radio
web site to read the rest.
Republic of Minerva Ruins
The Wikipedia article for Minerva Reefs provides a summary the
misguided attempt by Michael Oliver (born Moses Olitsky) to create his
own idea of a Libertarian paradise at Minerva North reef. For an
in-depth account of the whole strange affair, see "How to Rule Your
Own Country" by Harry Hobbs. In 1971, Oliver's shell company, called
Ocean Life Research Foundation, transported barges of sand from Fiji
with the goal of raising 2000 acres above the high tide line. After
building some concrete structures and covering 7 acres with sand, they
ran out of money AND attracted the attention of the neighbouring
Pacific Island nations - especially Tonga. Within a year, Tonga
destroyed all the work and built their own "permanent structure above
the tide line". At that point Tonga declared the reefs to be their
territory. Some of the sand appears to remain at the Southwest corner
of the reef and forms large sand bars that dry out at low tide.
There's also a building foundation and several huge chunks of concrete
that appear to be the result of the Tongan demolition work.
TROPICS
A seemingly never-ending parade of powerful typhoons continued to
batter the northern Philippines for a second consecutive month, with
Yinxing and Toraji being closely followed by Category-4 Usagi.
Strengthening Tropical Storm Man-yi to the east was predicted to
strike with hurricane force during the following weekend. The cyclones
have flooded villages and caused extensive damage to homes and
infrastructure and have killed at least 151 people.
SARA is about to cross the Yucatan peninsular.
BHEKI is in the South Indian Ocean
The MJO, which boosts tropical activity is also in the Indian Ocean
this week.
WEATHER ZONES
The wind accumulation shows a calm zone in the North Tasman Sea,
showing the main position of the subtropical ridge. Further north
there is a squash zone of enhanced trade winds in the Coral Sea and
around Vanuatu.
The South Pacific Convergence zone extends from Solomons to Samoa and
then southeast to Southern Cook Islands. It occasionally shifts south
across Fiji and Tonga.
A Low is expected to form near 25S 140W on the SPCZ and then deepen as
it goes south.
The MJO is now in the Indian Ocean, and that means the SPCZ is rather
weak for a while the week or two. However, SPCZ is expected to shift
south over Tonga this weekend and maybe form a tropical Low there
around 20 November, perhaps.
HIGHS and LOWS
There is a Low L1 forming on Monday between Fiji and NZ and this
should move off to the southeast to east of NZ. This system maintains
southerly winds between Fiji and NZ until Wednesday. Avoid.
HIGH H1 over southern NZ is expected to travel off to the east along
45S allowing L1 to drift south along its western side. Then L2 can
travel eastwards across NZ on Thursday
HIGH H2 is expected to travel slowly Northeast across the Tasman
reaching northern NZ this weekend.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
10 November 2024
Bobgram
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 10 November 2024
COP29
The 29th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is being held from11 to
22 November at BAKU Stadium in Azerbaijan.
COP meetings are where governments assess global efforts to advance
the Paris Agreement attempting to limit global warming to 1.5°C as
informed by the latest science. At COPs, world leaders come together
to measure progress and negotiate the best ways to address climate
change. There are now 198 Parties (197 countries plus the European
Union) to the Convention, constituting near universal membership.
A graph at carbonbrief.org shows that the world leaders have a tough
job, since the past 13 months have all been above that 1.5degree
threshold.
Considering the downpours that the northern hemisphere has been
delivering over recent weeks it seems that the atmosphere seems to
have access to extra energy to feed the storms.
TROPICS
Typhoon Kong-rey drenched coastal areas of East China and southern
Japan after leaving two people dead in Taiwan. In its wake are TORAJI
and MAN-YI
• The far northern Philippines was lashed by Category-3 Typhoon
Yinxing, which was the third such storm to strike Luzon Island in less
than a month.
• Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba were lashed by
strengthening Hurricane Rafael,
*Tropical Storm Patty formed briefly near the Azores.
WEATHER ZONE
The wind accumulation shows calm zones along 30 to 35S, showing the
main position of the subtropical ridge. Further north there is a
squash zone of enhanced trade winds from the Cooks to Tonga along
around 18S. Avoid.
The South Pacific Convergence zone extends from Solomons to Samoa and
then southeast to Southern Cook Islands. It occasionally shifts south
across Fiji and Tonga.
The MJO is now in the Indian Ocean, and that means the SPCZ should
weaken over the week or two. However, SPCZ is expected to shift south
over Tonga this weekend and maybe form a tropical Low there around 20
November, perhaps.
HIGHS and LOWS
There is a Low L1 east of NZ and well south of Tahiti moving slowly
off to the SE
There is a left-over trough south of 30S and northeast of Northland
tonight.
This lingers there as a HIGH H1 now in the Tasman Sea travels east
across central New Zealand this week and then off to the northeast.
Heat trough over inland Australia is expected to form a deepening LOW
L2off Sydney on Tuesday and this should then travel southeast across
southern NZ late in the week, bringing another dose of heavy rain to
Southern Alps.
Between H1 and L2 a strong NE flow should form south of 30S with a
warm front crossing Northland on Friday and Saturday. Avoid.
There maybe a LOW forming near Northland after that front bring
unsettled weather there early next week. This is still uncertain but
might be worth avoiding getting south of 30S to NZ from 17 to 18
November.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 10 November 2024
COP29
The 29th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is being held from11 to
22 November at BAKU Stadium in Azerbaijan.
COP meetings are where governments assess global efforts to advance
the Paris Agreement attempting to limit global warming to 1.5°C as
informed by the latest science. At COPs, world leaders come together
to measure progress and negotiate the best ways to address climate
change. There are now 198 Parties (197 countries plus the European
Union) to the Convention, constituting near universal membership.
A graph at carbonbrief.org shows that the world leaders have a tough
job, since the past 13 months have all been above that 1.5degree
threshold.
Considering the downpours that the northern hemisphere has been
delivering over recent weeks it seems that the atmosphere seems to
have access to extra energy to feed the storms.
TROPICS
Typhoon Kong-rey drenched coastal areas of East China and southern
Japan after leaving two people dead in Taiwan. In its wake are TORAJI
and MAN-YI
• The far northern Philippines was lashed by Category-3 Typhoon
Yinxing, which was the third such storm to strike Luzon Island in less
than a month.
• Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba were lashed by
strengthening Hurricane Rafael,
*Tropical Storm Patty formed briefly near the Azores.
WEATHER ZONE
The wind accumulation shows calm zones along 30 to 35S, showing the
main position of the subtropical ridge. Further north there is a
squash zone of enhanced trade winds from the Cooks to Tonga along
around 18S. Avoid.
The South Pacific Convergence zone extends from Solomons to Samoa and
then southeast to Southern Cook Islands. It occasionally shifts south
across Fiji and Tonga.
The MJO is now in the Indian Ocean, and that means the SPCZ should
weaken over the week or two. However, SPCZ is expected to shift south
over Tonga this weekend and maybe form a tropical Low there around 20
November, perhaps.
HIGHS and LOWS
There is a Low L1 east of NZ and well south of Tahiti moving slowly
off to the SE
There is a left-over trough south of 30S and northeast of Northland
tonight.
This lingers there as a HIGH H1 now in the Tasman Sea travels east
across central New Zealand this week and then off to the northeast.
Heat trough over inland Australia is expected to form a deepening LOW
L2off Sydney on Tuesday and this should then travel southeast across
southern NZ late in the week, bringing another dose of heavy rain to
Southern Alps.
Between H1 and L2 a strong NE flow should form south of 30S with a
warm front crossing Northland on Friday and Saturday. Avoid.
There maybe a LOW forming near Northland after that front bring
unsettled weather there early next week. This is still uncertain but
might be worth avoiding getting south of 30S to NZ from 17 to 18
November.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
03 November 2024
Bobgram 3 Nov
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 3 November 2024
A review of last month's weather
Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the isobars and streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at youtu.be/H1hRtFYQbvQ
The main pattern for October was a procession of HIGHS travelling east along around 25 to 35S followed by a trough or two, sometime three with disturbed westerly wind south of 40S. Early in the month a low was blocked in the Tasman Sea so that rain clouds were held in place with a fetch of moist air from the subtropics onto Dunedin, producing severe flooding.
Sea Surface temperature anomalies from psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml
The Kuroshio current is feeding warm seas across the North pacific,
And the weaker cool tongue along the Pacific equator is a sign that the incoming La Nina.
Average isobars for past month From http://www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/fnl/slp_30b.fnl.html
The subtropical ridge in the Southern hemisphere has weakened and is starting to drift south.
Pressure anomalies for past month
The anomaly pressure pattern for October shows lows in the southern hemisphere breeding in the south Indian Ocean and around southern South America.
The northern 1015 line is drifting south across Australia.
The 1020 isobar has shrunk.
TROPICS
Super Typhoon Kong-rey killed at least one person as it slammed into Taiwan with winds of up to 125 mph as a Category-3 tropical cyclone. It was the largest such storm to hit the island since Typhoon Herb in 1996.
* Late reports from the Philippines say floods and mudslides from Tropical Storm Trami killed at least 136 people before the storm later doused central Vietnam.
* Cyclone Dana uprooted trees, snapped power lines and caused local flooding as it made landfall in India's Odisha and West Bengal states.
PATTY is heading for Portugal
WEATHER ZONES
The wind accumulation shows the light wind area in north Tasman Sea from Brisbane to Auckland and several windy zones around the low south of Tahiti in the coming
The South Pacific Convergence zone extends from Solomons to Fiji/Samoa and then southeast to Southern Cook Islands. It is expected to shift south across Tonga between Wednesday and Friday.
The MJO is reforming in the Indian Ocean this week, and that means the SPCZ should weaken over the week or two. However, it starts off this week as a strong and broad feature.
HIGHS and LOWS
Front that travelled east past NZ on Saturday is expected to mix cold air with most warm air and form a LOW L1 south of Niue and east of NZ by Monday. L1 then deepens and moves slowly east. Accompanying trough is expected to travel east from Cooks to Tahiti.
HIGH H1 is moving over NZ early this week and then travelling east along 35S following L1.
It is followed by a moist NW flow in the Tasman Sea. The trough following this NW flow is expected to cross Northland on Sun 10 November, and then the models differ over the details.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 3 November 2024
A review of last month's weather
Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the isobars and streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at youtu.be/H1hRtFYQbvQ
The main pattern for October was a procession of HIGHS travelling east along around 25 to 35S followed by a trough or two, sometime three with disturbed westerly wind south of 40S. Early in the month a low was blocked in the Tasman Sea so that rain clouds were held in place with a fetch of moist air from the subtropics onto Dunedin, producing severe flooding.
Sea Surface temperature anomalies from psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml
The Kuroshio current is feeding warm seas across the North pacific,
And the weaker cool tongue along the Pacific equator is a sign that the incoming La Nina.
Average isobars for past month From http://www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/fnl/slp_30b.fnl.html
The subtropical ridge in the Southern hemisphere has weakened and is starting to drift south.
Pressure anomalies for past month
The anomaly pressure pattern for October shows lows in the southern hemisphere breeding in the south Indian Ocean and around southern South America.
The northern 1015 line is drifting south across Australia.
The 1020 isobar has shrunk.
TROPICS
Super Typhoon Kong-rey killed at least one person as it slammed into Taiwan with winds of up to 125 mph as a Category-3 tropical cyclone. It was the largest such storm to hit the island since Typhoon Herb in 1996.
* Late reports from the Philippines say floods and mudslides from Tropical Storm Trami killed at least 136 people before the storm later doused central Vietnam.
* Cyclone Dana uprooted trees, snapped power lines and caused local flooding as it made landfall in India's Odisha and West Bengal states.
PATTY is heading for Portugal
WEATHER ZONES
The wind accumulation shows the light wind area in north Tasman Sea from Brisbane to Auckland and several windy zones around the low south of Tahiti in the coming
The South Pacific Convergence zone extends from Solomons to Fiji/Samoa and then southeast to Southern Cook Islands. It is expected to shift south across Tonga between Wednesday and Friday.
The MJO is reforming in the Indian Ocean this week, and that means the SPCZ should weaken over the week or two. However, it starts off this week as a strong and broad feature.
HIGHS and LOWS
Front that travelled east past NZ on Saturday is expected to mix cold air with most warm air and form a LOW L1 south of Niue and east of NZ by Monday. L1 then deepens and moves slowly east. Accompanying trough is expected to travel east from Cooks to Tahiti.
HIGH H1 is moving over NZ early this week and then travelling east along 35S following L1.
It is followed by a moist NW flow in the Tasman Sea. The trough following this NW flow is expected to cross Northland on Sun 10 November, and then the models differ over the details.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
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