Bobgram 15 Dec

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 15 December 2024

The incoming MJO

For a MJO forecast see www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
The (bubbly) blue areas are associated with extra convection and the
(mellow) yellow areas are associated with supressed convection
So, this forecast indicates an increased risk for tropical cyclone
formation over the Pacific Ocean during the next two weeks

TROPICS
Cyclone Chido spun up over the Indian Ocean and then clipped the
northern tip of Madagascar at near Category-4 force.
This week there is a thundery westerly flow over the sea off Northern
Australia.
MJO is now travelling eastwards across Indonesia and northern
Australia

WEATHER ZONES

The wind accumulation shows a zone of green over most of the tropics,
good for sailing. However, there are some red windy areas across
Northern Australia and in the Coral Sea due to extra convection. Also,
there are strong winds around the lows near 30S and in

The South Pacific Convergence zone extends from the Solomon Islands to
Samoa to the Southern cooks and is intensifying. There is also extra
convection expected over the seas of Northern Australia and in the
Coral Sea. This can be attributed to the incoming MJO A Low is likely
to form in Coral Sea area around mid-next week.

We start the week with L1 995hPa SW of Rarotonga

High H1 is located to southeast of L1 and expected to move off to the
SE.

Then on Monday L2 is expected to form near 30S between Fiji and NZ.

By Mid-week L2 is expected to deepen to below 985 t NE of NZ and go
south, whilst L1 travels SW and is absorbed by L2

Also, by mid-week a Trough and Low L3 should form in south Tasman Sea
and then travel across South Island over the weekend,
followed by H2 early next week.

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