Bobgram

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 29 December 2024

Happy New Year (mid-week)

Olde Lang Syne was written by Robbie Burns in 1788, one of the verses
reflects with melancholy on the various voyages done together (in the
past year), and the inverse of that is a joyful look ahead to the
voyages that may come our way in this coming year
An apt way to "toast" in the New Year

However, the seas "roared and swelled" almost every other month last
year
Here is a recap of the top six cyclones

MAY Cyclone Remal left 84 people dead in eastern India and Bangladesh
as one of the longest lasting such storms on record there.

JULY Category-5 Hurricane Beryl ravaged Grenada on July 1. It later
struck the Yucatan Peninsula and Texas coast as a much weaker storm.
At least 18 people were left dead in its wake.

SEPTEMBER Hurricane Helene killed 234 people and unleashed
catastrophic flooding in Florida, Georgia and North Carolina.

OCTOBER Helene was quickly followed in early October by Category-5
Hurricane Milton, which ravaged Florida as the second strongest ever
recorded in the Gulf of Mexico and the strongest worldwide for 2024.
Milton left 35 dead. . T

NOVEMBER The Philippines was ravaged by six consecutive typhoons in
less than a month, punctuated by Typhoon Man-yi.

DECEMBER Category-4 Cyclone Chido left hundreds dead as it devastated
the French territory of Mayotte in the Indian Ocean mid-December. It
then killed at least 42 others in Mozambique and Malawi.

TROPICS
That Low which was in the Coral Sea last weekend failed to deepen into
a named cyclone. However, the weather map shows that the South Pacific
Convergence zone remails active from northern Coral Sea to norther
Vanuatu. It also still carries a depression near Fiji, L1. This
depression is moving east. It is also ingesting dry southwest winds,
so not expected to develop. By mid-week another depression L2 is
expected west of Vanuatu and then hovering over the Vanuatu area until
next week. There is LOW chance this system might develop into a small
cyclone. Avoid Vanuatu/Fiji area this week.

WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is active and broad and extends
from New Guinea to Austral Islands spreading onto Society Islands at
times. Avoid.
The MJO is now fading and moving away, so SPCZ should relax over next
few weeks.

LOWS and HIGHS
Subtropical Low s L1 and L2 are expected to hover near Fiji and
Vanuatu this week.

Low L3 is expected to remain slow moving east of New Zealand,
maintaining mainly a SW flow over New Zealand and as far north as 30S
between NZ and Fiji. It may become multi centred and another Low from
the SW is expected to cross the South Island on Thursday.

HIGH H1 should spread from Tasmania into central Tasman Sea by
Wednesday and then fade in northern Tasman Sea. Another HIGH is
expected to spread into central Tasman Sea by Friday and then hover
there until next week.

Low L4 is expected to remain over inland Australia.

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