Bob Blog 12 Jan

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled 12 January 2025

Is this a La Nina Modoki?

Modoki is a Japanese word loosely translated to "similar, but
different" or in New Zealand slang "Yeah, nah". Professor Toshio
Yamagata and a colleague named the phenomenon while investigating the
causes of Japan's hot summer in 2004.

This occurs when the Sea surface temperature SST in the central
equatorial Pacific coos, while the SST in the western and eastern
parts warm.

This differs from the regular La Nina where the cool zone is in the
eastern equatorial Pacific as shown here on the left.

A La Nina Modoki shifts the Jetstream that intercepts western north
America. This explains the drought over central California, a primary
factor in this week's wildfires.

A recent time section of SST anomalies near the equator and across the
Pacific,

For a deeper look t La Nina Modoki see
www.youtube.com/watch?v=VxIwP9V0pTs

TROPICS

The MJO is now in the Indian ocean. Tropical cyclone DIKELEDI is
skirting Madagascar.

In the Pacific PITA formed briefly on the South pacific Convergence
zone near Niue and is now weakening near the Southern Cooks.

WEATHER ZONES
The wind accumulation shows the windy signature of the Lows.
The South Pacific Convergence zone SPCZ is very active from Solomon
Islands to Samoa to Southern cooks
and expected to visit the Society Islands mid-week. Avoid

LOWS and HIGHS

For the next few days there is still a lot of wind around the
south-eastern sector of the now subtropical low L1, the remains of
cyclone PITA, south of the Southern Cooks.

The large deep Low southeast of Chatham Islands is expected to remain
in force until mid-week and then go southeast.

The High H1 in the Tasman Sea is expected to cross NZ on Tuesday and
Wednesday. These are good days for sailing south along NZ west coast

The Low L3 is expected to form east of Brisbane on Monday and then
slowly deepen and travel east to be near Norfolk Island by Thursday
and then to go to the south. Avoid.

Another Low L4 is expected to cross south of Tasmania on Wednesday and
then move off to the southeast.

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Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
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