Bob Blog 26 Jan 2025

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.

Compiled 26 January 2025

New Zealand weather review 2024

Rainfall

Around the globe the average rainfall rate is just less than a metre
per year.

NOAA's Global Precipitation Climate Project have been watching this:

Roughly every fifth year is wetter, as it was in 2024.

The Southern Hemisphere is drier and has been showing a drying trend,
but bucked that in 2024.

The Australia BoM shows the regional forecast rain terciles for
February at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/pacific/outlooks/


In this map some places between the Coral Sea and Tonga are expected
to have an over 80% chance of being above normal. And the shading is a
good proxy for the expected average position of the Thundery South
Pacific Convergence zone for the coming month.

Fingers of extra wetness spread from the Coral Sea to northern NZ.

TROPICS

The MJO is now in the Indian ocean and moving onto the NW end of
Australia.

There are currently no named cyclones anywhere

Last week Cyclone Sean brought torrential rains in northwestern
Australia but caused little damage in the region.

WEATHER ZONES
The wind accumulation shows that the wind builds up in areas such as
he Coral Sea and NW of New Caledonia, but not along the SPCZ (whose
position is shown in the rain accumulation).

So for the coming week they may be soe wind and some rain, but they
are NOT expected to combine.

A tropical low L4 is expected to form on the SPCZ in the New Caledonia
area from mid-week Avoid,

LOWS and HIGHS

LOW L1 is well south of Tahiti tonight and expected to travel off to
the Se

LOW L2 is crossing NZ tonight and expected to travel off to the
Southeast.

HIGH H1 is expected to cross NZ on Tuesday.

Low L3 and accompanying front is expected to travel across NZ
mid-week.

After that High H3 should move onto NZ, then to east of NZ this
weekend.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, check metbob.com
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>