Bob blog

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled 13 April 2025
Recorded Natural disasters

The International Disaster database EM-DAT of the Centre for Research
on the Epidemiology of Disaster (CRED) gives a graph like this since
1900

As seen at https://ourworldindata.org/disaster-database-limitations
However the reporting system in the 1900s was insufficient. so if we
just concentrate on the past 23 years ...
...then we see that there is a reasonably constant trend.
The good news is that, thanks to improvements in forecasting, alerting
and warning, the number of human deaths had a drop to below 50,000 per
year between 2011 and 2121 ....In 2022 there was a European heat wave
and in 2024 some earthquakes jolted the numbers up.

TROPICS
There are no named Topical cyclones around at present.
But that system forming near Vanuatu has potential.

WEATHER ZONES
Weather Zones Mid-week GFS model showing isobars, winds, waves
(purple), rain (red), MT (Monsoonal trough), STR (Subtropical Ridge),
SPCZ (South Pacific Convergence Zone) CZ (Convergence Zone)

Wind accumulation shows the full extent of the Tasman Easter Low.
Also, some windy lows in the tropics about Australian north coast this
week.

Rain accumulation this week from Windy.com shows heaviest rain may be
near northern Australia. Also shows the rain trail of L2 in the Tasman
Sea.


LOWS and HIGHS
On Monday the front attached to Low L1 is expected to cross South
Island and then L1 should move off to the southeast.
High H1 is the Tasman Sea is expected to follow L1 and scoot around
the south and east side of South Island on Tuesday.
Clouds are gathering around Vanuatu on Monday in a tropical Low L2
that should then move south into the Tasman Sea. Here it is expected
to ingest cold air that has arrived fresh from the Southern Ocean on
the back side of L1. The squashing isotherms are expected to help
deepen L2 from 1000 on Tuesday to 980 on Wednesday bringing wind and
rain to NZ just in time for the starting commute of the Easter holiday
break. Avoid
HIGH H2 is expected to travel across New South Wales at end of the
week and into Tasman Sea as L2 crosses central NZ.
Them Low L3, near Tasmania on Friday combines with another low and
moves across Tasman Sea next week. Possibly avoid. This means that
the following 10 days are difficult for trans-Tasman travel
Gulf of Panama: Useful NE winds until Thursday 17 the showery on Good
Friday and light winds next week.
5N to Galapagos: The convergence zone with squally showers and light
winds in-between them is from 5N to 2N. Light southerly winds around
Galapagos and the current at the equator is to the NW.
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If you would like more details about your voyage, check metbob.com
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
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