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Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing weather around the South pacific

02 January 2011

BOBGRAM7 issued 2 Jan 2011

WEATHERGRAM
YOTREPS
Issued 2 Jan 2011
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from
the patterned world of weather maps, so please fine-tune to your place.
Dates are in UTC unless otherwise stated.

La NINA is still strong. Average atmospheric SOI over 30 days ending 2
Jan is 2.56 (an increase of 0.26 in the past week). Oceanic Nino Index
for Sep-Oct-Nov is -1.4

TROPICS
South Pacific Convergence Zone SPCZ is north of its normal location for
this time of the year, stretching across the Solomons to Samoa to near
Marquesas A Madden Julian Oscillation MJO of extra convection has
stalled over northern Australia, and is slowly making its way into the
Coral sea ... the sub tropical jet is deflected south of its norm and is
mostly taking extra moisture that is currently over north Australia
southeastwards to west of south island and filling the hydro lakes (spot
energy price in NZ has gone from extreme high to extreme low is a few
weeks).

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE: STR.
Two cells of High pressure come and go over eastern NZ this week 2-3 Jan
and 5-6 Jan maintaining a warm northerly flow over the North Island.

TASMAN SEA/ NZ AREA
Low is expected to form in Coral Sea on 3 Jan and go south along 160 E
by 6 Jan and deepen to 990 at 37S. Some other lows may form in Coral Sea
on 7 and 8 Jan . And there is a replacement trough (between highs)
crossing much of South Island of NZ on 4 Jan.


The terms used are more fully explained in the METSERVICE Yacht Pack.
More info at http://weathergram.blogspot.com
Feedback to bob.mcdavitt@metservice.com

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