Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing weather around the South pacific

22 January 2011

BOBGRAM7 issued 23 Jan 2011

Issued 23 January 2011
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from
the patterned world of weather maps, so please fine-tune to your place.
Dates are in UTC unless otherwise stated.

La NINA is still strong. Average atmospheric SOI over 30 days ending 22
Jan is 2.41 (a slight drop of .05 since 12 Jan). .

Two new cyclones named today. Fiji Met Service is following WILMA: its
centre is likely to circle clockwise to north of Samoa then some south
near America Samoa on Monday and southwest-wards across Tonga on Monday
and Tuesday. At this stage, it may get near Raoul Island on
Wednesday/Thursday and after that track is uncertain. Avoid.

Brisbane Bureau is following ANTHONY, which has formed in the Coral Sea
east-northeast from Cairns. It is currently heading east and should
feed on the warm seas of central Coral Sea over next few days....growing
and growing. This growth is likely to cause the system to loop near 156E
on late Tuesday/Wednesday and then to wander back to WNW where it may
make landfall on far north Queensland over weekend or early next week.
Uncertain at this stage. Avoid.

Another cyclone may form in the Vanuatu to Fiji area around Sun 30 Jan.

The low that deepened to around 990 hPa as it travelled southeast away
from New Caledonia on Saturday is crossing north half of North Island
tonight, taking a track along a trough that was left behind by former
ZILIA. This coincides with a King Tide around midnight. It has gales
around its centre and has already shunted a zone of heavy rain on ahead.

These weather systems have been FAST and FURIOUS lately.

High/ridge with light winds settling over North Island late Monday 24
Jan and moving off to east on Thu 27. Next High should cross Tasmania
on Fri 28 Jan and then cross North island Area around Sun 30 Jan to
Tuesday 1 Feb, but may have to wait for WILMA's remnants.

Remnants of WILMA may be coming south on Fri/Sat 28/29 Jan as a trough
(transitional between highs) crosses the Tasman Sea/NZ area. Details
uncertain at this stage, so if this may affect your plans then watch for
updates. In any event, there should be a new southerly change sweeping
away this trough on Sun 30 Jan, so outlook for Auckland anniversary day
regatta on Mon 31 Jan at this stage is for a dying SW flow.

The terms used are more fully explained in the METSERVICE Yacht Pack.
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