Bob Blog 13 Dec

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

Compiled Sun 13 Dec 2020

 

Outlook for PRADA Americas Cup AC75s World Series and PRADA Christmas Race on Hauraki Gulf 17-20 December.

There should be good racing and good variety of weather for the World Series with moderate SW wind on Thursday, light variable wind of Friday, and moderate NE winds on Saturday.

 

As for the Christmas racing on Sunday 20 December--- that may be exciting stuff, deepening on the progress of a system from the tropics-- weather forecast will need updating closer to the day.

 

MJO

The MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) is a wave of enhanced tropical activity that travels eastwards around the world. It takes a few weeks to a month to cross the Pacific and is now over northern Australia.

 

The Tropics

Tropical Depression 01F is located around 350 bn N of Fiji and is very likely to deepen into the first tropical cyclone of the region for the season by Monday, between Vanuatu and Fiji. It is expected to travel slowly south this week. Its outlook is still uncertain but likely to go south and weaken in the Tasman Sea/NZ area from 18 to 21 December.

 

Tropical Depression 03F is located around 140nm south of Pagp Pago , It has a moderate chance of deepening into a tropical cyclone between Samoa and Niue by Monday and should travel southeastwards.

 

WEATHER ZONES

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

SPCZ stretches from Solomon Islands to Tuvalu/Samoa area whist the tropical cyclones do their own thing.

 

Subtropical ridge (STR)

HIGH 1028 in central Tasman Sea today is expected to weaken to 1018 as it crosses NZ on Thu 17 Dec and then join another High travelling east along 40 to 45S to east of South Island.

 

NZ/Tasman troughs

LOW offshore Brisbane area on Monday expected to turn into a trough and go inland on Tuesday.

Tropical feature from Fiji area is expected to come south and affect Tasman Sea /NZ area from 18 to 21 Dec.

 

Fiji/Tonga to NZ: Stay put this week

 

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