Bob Blog 20 Dec

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

Compiled Sun 20 Dec 2020

 

MJO

The MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) is a wave of enhanced tropical activity that travels eastwards around the world. It takes a few weeks to a month to cross the Pacific. Its active (blue) has been over northern Australia and is expected to travel across the South Pacific over the next few weeks as shown in the attached plot of OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation).

 

Cyclone outlook:

Since YASA and ZAZU have disturbed the erm surface waters around Fiji and Tonga /Niue this REDUCES the risk of cyclone formation in these areas.

 

To check the latest tropical cyclone weather discussion from NZ MetService, click on

www.metservice.com/warnings/tropical-cyclone-activity

or from Fiji MetService

www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20036.txt is a text file

This can be downloaded via an email to query@saildocs.com

No subject needed, with message

SEND https://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20036.txt

 

The Tropics

TC ZAZU went southeast over open water, but TC YASA build to category 5 and then made landfall over Vanua Levu, Fiji last Thursday night and travelled across the Lau group . It brought devasting damage, within a week of Christmas. Please remember the victims in your Christmas /New Year budget (fund raising is still being arranged).

 

There has aloe en flooding in Samoa, see

www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/433136/major-flooding-in-parts-of-samoa

YASA is now fading as it travels Southwest.

 

WEATHER ZONES

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

SPCZ stretches from Solomon Islands to Tuvalu/Samoa area whilst YASA does its own thing.

 

Subtropical ridge (STR)

HIGH 1022 east of NZ travelling along 40S extends a ridge back onto North island until Wednesday.

Another HIGH is expected to spread over Tasmania on Friday and reach northern NZ early next week.

 

NZ/Tasman troughs

Trough from Tasman Sea crossing South Island on Monday.

LOW offshore Sydney on Tuesday travelling east across Tasman reaching NZ on Wednesday /Thursday followed by a SW /S flow on Friday/Saturday.

 

Fiji/Tonga to NZ: Stay put until YASA fades on Thursday.

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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.

Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/

Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).

Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.

Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212

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