Bob Blog 6 June 2021

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.

Compiled Sunday 6 June

First some great news.
Max of y2ksail.com has fixed the links to weather map images that are small
enough to be able to be accessed when you are at sea by sending emails to
query@sailmail.com even if you are using winlink on a UHF radio.

Weather Map coming from Fiji Met Service:
--> 3AM FST Surface Map available daily from 05.00am Fiji time
---> https://www.y2ksail.com/imagesfijimet/3AM-small.jpg
--> 6AM FST Surface Map available daily from 09.30am Fiji time
---> https://www.y2ksail.com/imagesfijimet/6AM-small.jpg
--> 09AM FST Surface Map available daily from 11.00am Fiji time
---> https://www.y2ksail.com/imagesfijimet/9AM-small.jpg
--> 12PM FST Surface Map available daily from 03.00pm Fiji time
---> https://www.y2ksail.com/imagesfijimet/12PM-small.jpg
--> 03PM FST Surface Map available daily from 05.00pm Fiji time
---> https://www.y2ksail.com/imagesfijimet/3PM-small.jpg
--> 06PM FST Surface Map available daily from 08.30pm Fiji time
---> https://www.y2ksail.com/imagesfijimet/6PM-small.jpg
--> 12AM FST Surface Map available daily from 03.00am Fiji time
---> https://www.y2ksail.com/imagesfijimet/12AM-small.jpg

Weather Map from New Zealand Met Service update every 6 hours, normally at
02-08-14-20 UTC TIME:
--> Last Analysis Pressure chart Actual time
---> https://www.y2ksail.com/imagesnzmet/actual.gif
--> +30 hours pressure forecast chart
---> https://www.y2ksail.com/imagesnzmet/h30.gif
--> +48 hours pressure forecast chart
---> https://www.y2ksail.com/imagesnzmet/h48.gif
--> +72 hours pressure forecast chart
---> https://www.y2ksail.com/imagesnzmet/h72.gif

REVIEW OF THE LAST MONTH (May 2021)

Sea Surface temperature anomalies from
www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/indicator_sst.jsp?lt=global&lc=global&c=ssta
The only highlight of note is a warm blob in the 40 latitudes in the
Northeast Pacific. La Nina has gone, and eastern equatorial Pacific is now
near normal.
To see how the annual weather cycle and the seasons are working out, we can
check the average isobar maps for past 30 days and their anomaly from
psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/glbcir.quick.shtml

The subtropical ridges in both hemispheres have shifted north. It has
intensified in the southern hemisphere and in North Pacific and North
Atlantic but weakened over interior of Europe (as per normal). The north
Indian low has got below 1010. the Indian monsoon has started in the past
few days and is a few days late. The Antarctic High has intensified to over
1030.

A belt of high pressure has shifted from East Eurasia /North Pacific to
cover north America. And across the north Atlantic towards Spain. A High/Lo
couplet in the southeast Pacific has drifted westwards, bringing more
easterly winds than normal to NZ.

Zooming into the NZ area
The subtropical ridge has sifted north as shown by the 1015 isobar. An
interesting trough has formed in the Southern Ocean near 120. The
intensification of the Antarctica high is probably due to the dark cold of
winter.

The Tropics
The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and Tropical
Cyclone Potential is from www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html

In the past week TC BLANCA briefly formed off west of Mexico. There is still
a moderate zone of potential development there, and a weak zone east of
Philippines and in China sea.

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ is expected to be rather thin and weak, stretching from Solomon
Islands across Coral Sea to Samoa.
A passing trough is expected over Southern Cooks to French Polynesia next
few days.
Another passing trough is expected over Tonga on local Tuesday reaching
Southern Cooks by end of the week. and southern Cooks by end of the week.

Subtropical ridge (STR)
HIGH over 1030 east of the South Island is lingering near 45S 170W until
mid-week then travelling north to 30S and fading, and likely to be joined by
another High near 45S by mid-week, then the combo travels off to the east
along 40S.
No highs in the Tasman Sea this week. A good week for getting from Australia
to Fiji.

Aussie/Tasman/NZ troughs
LOW has formed just north of Northland and is expected to linger there until
mid-week.
Another low is expected to deepen offshore of Sydney by mid-week and move
across central Tasman and reach central NZ early next week.
Another low is expected to form near 25S by end of the week in the passing
trough over Southern Cooks.

Panama to Galapagos/Marquesas
Winds in Panama are expected to turn southerly this week, and the ITCZ is
likely to visit. West to SW winds between Panama and Galapagos, with and
east-going current. It's the end of the season for sailing into the Pacific.

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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
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