Bob blog

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 20 June

The solstice is Monday 21 June at 0331 UTC. When I was learning meteorology
one of my teachers had a saying that covers the next six weeks: "when the
days get longer, the cold gets stronger".

TORNADO: We had one in south Auckland yesterday morning when a vigorous
front passed over Auckland. One person (originally from Fiji) was killed
over 1000 houses damaged and around 60 were rendered uninhabitable. 30 ton
containers were tossed over and a 85ton machine was shunted.
www.stuff.co.nz/environment/300337048/auckland-tornado-carnage-windows-shatt
ered-roofs-destroyed-trees-collapsed

Last week I tried for a second time to share with you links to the y2k
weather maps , but my blog editor again rewrote them, so I won't repeat
them, but you can find them at y2ksail.com/meteo-link.html.

Also worth mentioning are the weather maps from French Polynesia at
pitufa.at/weather-fp/
When underway the surface analysis charts can be downloaded via saildocs
request
send pf.preiso36
send pf.preiso60
WIND ATLAS: And for planning purposes the monthly averaged ocean winds :
.pitufa.at/oceanwinds/ This site has been revamped to work with mobile
devices.
Thanks to Brigit and Christian (from Austria and now on PITUFA in Tahiti)
for their help.

The Tropics
The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and Tropical
Cyclone Potential is from www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html
DOLORES and CLAUDETTE formed in past few days then faded after going
onshore.
There are moderate zones of potential development off east of Taiwan and
southwest Mexico.

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ is rebuilding and is expected to this week to be from Solomons to
Samoa, somewhat north of its normal position.
A trough over New Caledonia on Monday is expected to travel east and reach
Fiji/Tonga by mid-week and develop a low southeast of Southern Cooks by end
of the week.
Another passing trough is expected to reach New Caledonia by Monday 28 June.

These troughs offer an opportunity for yachts wanting to go east, and a
challenge for those going west.

Subtropical ridge (STR)
HIGH 1030 over Tasmania is expected to travel northeast across the Tasman
Sea and reach the North Island on Thursday then go off to the east.
Next HIGH should be around 1038 over Tasmania by Monday 28 June.

Aussie/Tasman/NZ troughs
Multi-centred LOW with main centre 995 over central North Island is expected
to travel east then southeast.
Another low 1002 is expected to deepen to northeast of Tasmania on Thursday
and travel northeast reaching North Island by Sunday 20 June.
Typical trough/ridge winter pattern with a nearly weekly rhythm.
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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
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