Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 29 December 2024
Happy New Year (mid-week)
Olde Lang Syne was written by Robbie Burns in 1788, one of the verses
reflects with melancholy on the various voyages done together (in the
past year), and the inverse of that is a joyful look ahead to the
voyages that may come our way in this coming year
An apt way to "toast" in the New Year
However, the seas "roared and swelled" almost every other month last
year
Here is a recap of the top six cyclones
MAY Cyclone Remal left 84 people dead in eastern India and Bangladesh
as one of the longest lasting such storms on record there.
JULY Category-5 Hurricane Beryl ravaged Grenada on July 1. It later
struck the Yucatan Peninsula and Texas coast as a much weaker storm.
At least 18 people were left dead in its wake.
SEPTEMBER Hurricane Helene killed 234 people and unleashed
catastrophic flooding in Florida, Georgia and North Carolina.
OCTOBER Helene was quickly followed in early October by Category-5
Hurricane Milton, which ravaged Florida as the second strongest ever
recorded in the Gulf of Mexico and the strongest worldwide for 2024.
Milton left 35 dead. . T
NOVEMBER The Philippines was ravaged by six consecutive typhoons in
less than a month, punctuated by Typhoon Man-yi.
DECEMBER Category-4 Cyclone Chido left hundreds dead as it devastated
the French territory of Mayotte in the Indian Ocean mid-December. It
then killed at least 42 others in Mozambique and Malawi.
TROPICS
That Low which was in the Coral Sea last weekend failed to deepen into
a named cyclone. However, the weather map shows that the South Pacific
Convergence zone remails active from northern Coral Sea to norther
Vanuatu. It also still carries a depression near Fiji, L1. This
depression is moving east. It is also ingesting dry southwest winds,
so not expected to develop. By mid-week another depression L2 is
expected west of Vanuatu and then hovering over the Vanuatu area until
next week. There is LOW chance this system might develop into a small
cyclone. Avoid Vanuatu/Fiji area this week.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is active and broad and extends
from New Guinea to Austral Islands spreading onto Society Islands at
times. Avoid.
The MJO is now fading and moving away, so SPCZ should relax over next
few weeks.
LOWS and HIGHS
Subtropical Low s L1 and L2 are expected to hover near Fiji and
Vanuatu this week.
Low L3 is expected to remain slow moving east of New Zealand,
maintaining mainly a SW flow over New Zealand and as far north as 30S
between NZ and Fiji. It may become multi centred and another Low from
the SW is expected to cross the South Island on Thursday.
HIGH H1 should spread from Tasmania into central Tasman Sea by
Wednesday and then fade in northern Tasman Sea. Another HIGH is
expected to spread into central Tasman Sea by Friday and then hover
there until next week.
Low L4 is expected to remain over inland Australia.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, check metbob.com
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
29 December 2024
22 December 2024
Bobgram 22 Dec
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 22 December 2024
Seasons Greetings
Sydney-Hobart 1998
A storm formed in Bass Strait during the Sydney-Hobart 1998.
Six sailors died, 70 were injured.
The weather maps as shown at
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/15/5/1520-0434_2000_015_0543_t
abdso_2_0_co_2.xm
The report of the court of Inquiry makes interesting reading
at
www.ussailing.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Sydney-to-Hobart-Race-Cor
oners-Report-1998.pdf
With comments such as
"It's going to be a shit fight in Bass Strait" on page 68
This is a storm that changed the way marine forecasting is done.
From the Court of Inquiry report, recommendation Number 6 on page 21
(for Category One Yacht races) was as follows
6) THAT WEATHER FORECASTS WHICH ARE SPECIFICALLY PROVIDED FOR YACHT
RACING FLEETS CONTAIN:-(a) AS WELL AS THE AVERAGE WINDS EXPECTED, THE
MAXIMUM GUSTS OF WIND THAT ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR; AND (b) AS WELL AS THE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS EXPECTED, THE MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS THAT ARE
LIKELY TO BE ENCOUNTERED.
Ever since then all marine forecasts issued by the Bureau of
Meteorology in Australia carry a disclaimer:
As for this year's Sydney to Hobart starting on Thursday:
For starters there is expected to be an increasing Northeast wind
making for fast and furious conditions for the maxi Yachts. Then there
is potential for some nasty weather ahead for the majority of the over
100 vessel fleet. A change is being forecast on Friday which could
whip up testing conditions - including 35 plus knots of wind and 4m
seas in Bass Strait.
TROPICS
Hundreds were feared dead after the eye of Category-4 Cyclone Chida
made a direct hit on the impoverished French overseas territory of
Mayotte in the western Indian Ocean. Officials said 90% of the island
nation's buildings were destroyed. Chida went on to leave dozens dead
in Mozambique and neighbouring Malawi.
There is a convective complex in the Coral Sea which is forecast to
deepen on Monday and then weaken on Tuesday then swing off to the
southeast towards Raoul Island.
This system may briefly be named as a tropical cyclone.
WEATHER ZONES
The wind accumulation shows that mid-latitude Low L3 has more wind
than tropical Low L2. Subtropical Low L1 has strong NW winds on its
eastern side. The spot value off the Eden corner this week has a
maximum of 55kt for the Sydney-Hobart.
The South Pacific Convergence zone extends from PNG to South of Tahiti
and is very active this week thanks to an active MJO.
LOWS and HIGHS
Subtropical Low L1 is expected to form south of Niue on Monday out of
a thundery trough that crossed NZ this weekend.
Tropical Low L2 is expected to deepen in Coral Sea on Monday then
travel Se towards Raoul Island and weaken. It might briefly be named
as a tropical cyclone and is expected to bring strong winds and heavy
rain to Vanuatu mid-week.
Low L3 is expected to deepen off New South Wales on Monday and then
travel east along 40S, building a southerly swell over 6m in
mid-Tasman by mid-week. It should then cross central NZ on Boxing Day
and merge with L2 east of NZ continuing east along 40S into next week.
Avoid.
HIGH H1 should form off New South Wales mid -week and move into
central Tasman Sea following L3. It has strong NE winds on its western
side and is expected to be followed by a strong trough reaching Bass
strait early Friday, in time to affect the Sydney-Hobart fleet.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 22 December 2024
Seasons Greetings
Sydney-Hobart 1998
A storm formed in Bass Strait during the Sydney-Hobart 1998.
Six sailors died, 70 were injured.
The weather maps as shown at
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/15/5/1520-0434_2000_015_0543_t
abdso_2_0_co_2.xm
The report of the court of Inquiry makes interesting reading
at
www.ussailing.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Sydney-to-Hobart-Race-Cor
oners-Report-1998.pdf
With comments such as
"It's going to be a shit fight in Bass Strait" on page 68
This is a storm that changed the way marine forecasting is done.
From the Court of Inquiry report, recommendation Number 6 on page 21
(for Category One Yacht races) was as follows
6) THAT WEATHER FORECASTS WHICH ARE SPECIFICALLY PROVIDED FOR YACHT
RACING FLEETS CONTAIN:-(a) AS WELL AS THE AVERAGE WINDS EXPECTED, THE
MAXIMUM GUSTS OF WIND THAT ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR; AND (b) AS WELL AS THE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS EXPECTED, THE MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS THAT ARE
LIKELY TO BE ENCOUNTERED.
Ever since then all marine forecasts issued by the Bureau of
Meteorology in Australia carry a disclaimer:
As for this year's Sydney to Hobart starting on Thursday:
For starters there is expected to be an increasing Northeast wind
making for fast and furious conditions for the maxi Yachts. Then there
is potential for some nasty weather ahead for the majority of the over
100 vessel fleet. A change is being forecast on Friday which could
whip up testing conditions - including 35 plus knots of wind and 4m
seas in Bass Strait.
TROPICS
Hundreds were feared dead after the eye of Category-4 Cyclone Chida
made a direct hit on the impoverished French overseas territory of
Mayotte in the western Indian Ocean. Officials said 90% of the island
nation's buildings were destroyed. Chida went on to leave dozens dead
in Mozambique and neighbouring Malawi.
There is a convective complex in the Coral Sea which is forecast to
deepen on Monday and then weaken on Tuesday then swing off to the
southeast towards Raoul Island.
This system may briefly be named as a tropical cyclone.
WEATHER ZONES
The wind accumulation shows that mid-latitude Low L3 has more wind
than tropical Low L2. Subtropical Low L1 has strong NW winds on its
eastern side. The spot value off the Eden corner this week has a
maximum of 55kt for the Sydney-Hobart.
The South Pacific Convergence zone extends from PNG to South of Tahiti
and is very active this week thanks to an active MJO.
LOWS and HIGHS
Subtropical Low L1 is expected to form south of Niue on Monday out of
a thundery trough that crossed NZ this weekend.
Tropical Low L2 is expected to deepen in Coral Sea on Monday then
travel Se towards Raoul Island and weaken. It might briefly be named
as a tropical cyclone and is expected to bring strong winds and heavy
rain to Vanuatu mid-week.
Low L3 is expected to deepen off New South Wales on Monday and then
travel east along 40S, building a southerly swell over 6m in
mid-Tasman by mid-week. It should then cross central NZ on Boxing Day
and merge with L2 east of NZ continuing east along 40S into next week.
Avoid.
HIGH H1 should form off New South Wales mid -week and move into
central Tasman Sea following L3. It has strong NE winds on its western
side and is expected to be followed by a strong trough reaching Bass
strait early Friday, in time to affect the Sydney-Hobart fleet.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
15 December 2024
Bobgram 15 Dec
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 15 December 2024
The incoming MJO
For a MJO forecast see www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
The (bubbly) blue areas are associated with extra convection and the
(mellow) yellow areas are associated with supressed convection
So, this forecast indicates an increased risk for tropical cyclone
formation over the Pacific Ocean during the next two weeks
TROPICS
Cyclone Chido spun up over the Indian Ocean and then clipped the
northern tip of Madagascar at near Category-4 force.
This week there is a thundery westerly flow over the sea off Northern
Australia.
MJO is now travelling eastwards across Indonesia and northern
Australia
WEATHER ZONES
The wind accumulation shows a zone of green over most of the tropics,
good for sailing. However, there are some red windy areas across
Northern Australia and in the Coral Sea due to extra convection. Also,
there are strong winds around the lows near 30S and in
The South Pacific Convergence zone extends from the Solomon Islands to
Samoa to the Southern cooks and is intensifying. There is also extra
convection expected over the seas of Northern Australia and in the
Coral Sea. This can be attributed to the incoming MJO A Low is likely
to form in Coral Sea area around mid-next week.
We start the week with L1 995hPa SW of Rarotonga
High H1 is located to southeast of L1 and expected to move off to the
SE.
Then on Monday L2 is expected to form near 30S between Fiji and NZ.
By Mid-week L2 is expected to deepen to below 985 t NE of NZ and go
south, whilst L1 travels SW and is absorbed by L2
Also, by mid-week a Trough and Low L3 should form in south Tasman Sea
and then travel across South Island over the weekend,
followed by H2 early next week.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 15 December 2024
The incoming MJO
For a MJO forecast see www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
The (bubbly) blue areas are associated with extra convection and the
(mellow) yellow areas are associated with supressed convection
So, this forecast indicates an increased risk for tropical cyclone
formation over the Pacific Ocean during the next two weeks
TROPICS
Cyclone Chido spun up over the Indian Ocean and then clipped the
northern tip of Madagascar at near Category-4 force.
This week there is a thundery westerly flow over the sea off Northern
Australia.
MJO is now travelling eastwards across Indonesia and northern
Australia
WEATHER ZONES
The wind accumulation shows a zone of green over most of the tropics,
good for sailing. However, there are some red windy areas across
Northern Australia and in the Coral Sea due to extra convection. Also,
there are strong winds around the lows near 30S and in
The South Pacific Convergence zone extends from the Solomon Islands to
Samoa to the Southern cooks and is intensifying. There is also extra
convection expected over the seas of Northern Australia and in the
Coral Sea. This can be attributed to the incoming MJO A Low is likely
to form in Coral Sea area around mid-next week.
We start the week with L1 995hPa SW of Rarotonga
High H1 is located to southeast of L1 and expected to move off to the
SE.
Then on Monday L2 is expected to form near 30S between Fiji and NZ.
By Mid-week L2 is expected to deepen to below 985 t NE of NZ and go
south, whilst L1 travels SW and is absorbed by L2
Also, by mid-week a Trough and Low L3 should form in south Tasman Sea
and then travel across South Island over the weekend,
followed by H2 early next week.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
08 December 2024
Bobgram 8 Dec
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 8 December 2024
This stuttering LA NINA
The sea service temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific are
slightly cooler than normal and holding steady at around -0.4C
off-normal, but are NOT expected to cool far enough to produce a full
blown La Nina.
BoM data from late November shows a plume of expected predictions from
several models, but only a few of them break the -0.8C threshold, and
most show a relaxing of conditions after end of January.
It now seems likely that this LA NINA event is a weak one and is
having minimal impact on weather as compared to previous episodes.
TROPICS
FENGAL tracked across Sri Lanka and Southern India last week.
No cyclones are around at present.
MJO is now travelling eastwards across Indonesia and northern
Australia.
WEATHER ZONES
The wind accumulation shows a couple of windy fronts near North
Island, NZ, this week and windy conditions generally south of 40S. The
tropics look OK except for strong winds and heavy around Niue and
Southern Cooks associated with a tropical depression late in the week.
The South Pacific Convergence zone extends from Northern Vanuatu to
north of Samoa to an active region over Southern Cooks Tropical Low L2
is expected to deepen and travel SE of southern cooks by end of week.
Another low L3 may form over New Caledonia area late in the week and
travel southeast crossing North Island around Sunday 15 Dec.
When the MJO starts arriving over north Australia and into the Pacific
over the next few weeks, more active tropical weather is likely.
HIGHS and LOWS
This is a good week for a NW steering field on our weather features.
HIGH H1 may stay quasi stationary well to southeast of Tahiti. The
HIGH H2 east of NZ should travel southeast well east of NZ this week.
The trough crossing NZ tonight and Monday is expected to peel off to
the southeast next few days.
Low L1 should travel off the heat trough over central Australia and
form near Lord Howe by Wednesday then travel weaken into a trough
crossing NZ on Thursday.
HIGH H3 should be over Aussie Bight by Wednesday and into central
Tasman Sea/ Southern NZ area by Saturday.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 8 December 2024
This stuttering LA NINA
The sea service temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific are
slightly cooler than normal and holding steady at around -0.4C
off-normal, but are NOT expected to cool far enough to produce a full
blown La Nina.
BoM data from late November shows a plume of expected predictions from
several models, but only a few of them break the -0.8C threshold, and
most show a relaxing of conditions after end of January.
It now seems likely that this LA NINA event is a weak one and is
having minimal impact on weather as compared to previous episodes.
TROPICS
FENGAL tracked across Sri Lanka and Southern India last week.
No cyclones are around at present.
MJO is now travelling eastwards across Indonesia and northern
Australia.
WEATHER ZONES
The wind accumulation shows a couple of windy fronts near North
Island, NZ, this week and windy conditions generally south of 40S. The
tropics look OK except for strong winds and heavy around Niue and
Southern Cooks associated with a tropical depression late in the week.
The South Pacific Convergence zone extends from Northern Vanuatu to
north of Samoa to an active region over Southern Cooks Tropical Low L2
is expected to deepen and travel SE of southern cooks by end of week.
Another low L3 may form over New Caledonia area late in the week and
travel southeast crossing North Island around Sunday 15 Dec.
When the MJO starts arriving over north Australia and into the Pacific
over the next few weeks, more active tropical weather is likely.
HIGHS and LOWS
This is a good week for a NW steering field on our weather features.
HIGH H1 may stay quasi stationary well to southeast of Tahiti. The
HIGH H2 east of NZ should travel southeast well east of NZ this week.
The trough crossing NZ tonight and Monday is expected to peel off to
the southeast next few days.
Low L1 should travel off the heat trough over central Australia and
form near Lord Howe by Wednesday then travel weaken into a trough
crossing NZ on Thursday.
HIGH H3 should be over Aussie Bight by Wednesday and into central
Tasman Sea/ Southern NZ area by Saturday.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
01 December 2024
Bobgram 1 Dec
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 1 December 2024
A review of last month's weather
Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the
isobars and streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at
youtu.be/O1igNpEvKxs
November was dominated by large HIGHS travelling east across the South
Pacific. Some going around northern NZ maintaining a zone of light
winds near 30south, and some going around southern or central NZ.
Between the Highs there were troughs, with cloud bands that lingered
in a frontal graveyard near 20 to 30 South.
Over Australia front often acted like an atmospheric river taking
moisture from far north to central areas.
The Kuroshio current continues to feed warm seas across the North
pacific,
And the weaker cool tongue along the Pacific equator is a sign that
the incoming La Nina.
Average isobars for past month are at
www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/fnl/slp_30b.fnl.html
The subtropical ridge in the Southern hemisphere has strengthened and
shifted south.
An interesting hollow of low pressure is sitting over the
warmer-than-normal waters around the Aleutian Islands in the North
pacific.
The anomaly pressure pattern for November shows the dominant HIGH over
NZ.
North America has become a breeding ground for lows.
Locally, The northern 1015 line is drifting south across Australia.
The 1020 isobar has expanded.
TROPICS
FENGAL formed over the Bay of Bengal near Sri Lanka and is bringing
locally heavy rain and strong winds to India's Tamil Nadu and Andhra
Pradesh states. EROBYN is in south-central Indian Ocean
WEATHER ZONES
The wind accumulation shows the light wind zone along 30 to 35S for
the subtropical ridge. North of that are the trade winds, with a
squash zone near 20 to 25S south of Fiji and Tonga associated with a
small low L1. South of the subtropical ridge are the strong winds of
the disturbed westerlies.
The South Pacific Convergence zone extends from Solomons to Samoa to
northern Cooks. Associated convergence zones extends from New
Caledonia to Fiji across part of Tonga to Niue and then off to the
southeast.
The MJO is moving across the Indian Ocean this week, and that means
the SPCZ should remain quiet this week. However, it is likely to
activate between mid and late December.
HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 east of NZ is moving off to the east
Tropical trough/low L1 id expected to form south of Fiji on Monday and
travel slowly southwest on Wednesday and then to the southeast and
fade. There is a zone off light winds on the north side of L1.
Low L2 is crossing Tasmania on Tuesday and NZ on Thursday and Friday,
followed by H2.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 1 December 2024
A review of last month's weather
Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the
isobars and streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at
youtu.be/O1igNpEvKxs
November was dominated by large HIGHS travelling east across the South
Pacific. Some going around northern NZ maintaining a zone of light
winds near 30south, and some going around southern or central NZ.
Between the Highs there were troughs, with cloud bands that lingered
in a frontal graveyard near 20 to 30 South.
Over Australia front often acted like an atmospheric river taking
moisture from far north to central areas.
The Kuroshio current continues to feed warm seas across the North
pacific,
And the weaker cool tongue along the Pacific equator is a sign that
the incoming La Nina.
Average isobars for past month are at
www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/fnl/slp_30b.fnl.html
The subtropical ridge in the Southern hemisphere has strengthened and
shifted south.
An interesting hollow of low pressure is sitting over the
warmer-than-normal waters around the Aleutian Islands in the North
pacific.
The anomaly pressure pattern for November shows the dominant HIGH over
NZ.
North America has become a breeding ground for lows.
Locally, The northern 1015 line is drifting south across Australia.
The 1020 isobar has expanded.
TROPICS
FENGAL formed over the Bay of Bengal near Sri Lanka and is bringing
locally heavy rain and strong winds to India's Tamil Nadu and Andhra
Pradesh states. EROBYN is in south-central Indian Ocean
WEATHER ZONES
The wind accumulation shows the light wind zone along 30 to 35S for
the subtropical ridge. North of that are the trade winds, with a
squash zone near 20 to 25S south of Fiji and Tonga associated with a
small low L1. South of the subtropical ridge are the strong winds of
the disturbed westerlies.
The South Pacific Convergence zone extends from Solomons to Samoa to
northern Cooks. Associated convergence zones extends from New
Caledonia to Fiji across part of Tonga to Niue and then off to the
southeast.
The MJO is moving across the Indian Ocean this week, and that means
the SPCZ should remain quiet this week. However, it is likely to
activate between mid and late December.
HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 east of NZ is moving off to the east
Tropical trough/low L1 id expected to form south of Fiji on Monday and
travel slowly southwest on Wednesday and then to the southeast and
fade. There is a zone off light winds on the north side of L1.
Low L2 is crossing Tasmania on Tuesday and NZ on Thursday and Friday,
followed by H2.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
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