Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing weather around the South pacific

10 January 2016

Bob Blog 10 Jan 2016



Issued 10 January 2016

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.


During the past month of strong El Nino conditions the averaged weather map had lower than normal pressures along eastern Pacific and western/central North America, also over north Atlantic/UK, the Ukraine, and parts of the Southern ocean.  Other areas , including the South Tasman  Sea,  have been having higher than normal pressures.

See the 30 day MSL Anomalies at


Tropical Cyclones

Tropical cyclone ULA is still going, and tonight affects the SE parts of Vanuatu.  During Monday it is expected to travel south past east- of-New Caledonia, and later this week should travel SE taking it to the NE of NZ.

For an update on this track see



The feature that was near the equator 180 earlier this year has finally worked its way to 7N and earned the name TC PALI. 

It can be seen at


Weekly rain maps for the tropics over the past two weeks show a build-up of rain intensity to around Northern Cooks and near Eq 180 (TC PALI).

These may be seen at



SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

The SPCZ is expected to remain active in the zone between the trade winds and the equatorial westerlies, around Northern Cooks.

  This is expected to deepen into a new tropical Low by mid-week and maybe further by the weekend as it travels south across Southern Cooks.   By then yet another

tropical low may form NW of Tahiti and travel southeastwards.


STR= Sub-tropical Ridge

HIGH crossing central NZ on Monday should travel off to eat by Tuesday.

Next HIGH is expected to cross south Tasman Sea on Wednesday and then linger over NZ until Saturday.


For NZ and Tasman Sea

A mixed bag this week. Fresh SW winds for Northland are expected on Wed and Saturday, otherwise moderate variable winds.


See my yotpak at for terms used.

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