Issued 17 January 2016
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.
The current Madden Julian Oscillation has managed to circle the planet in the past six weeks (since early Dec). The MJO Phase may be seen at
The CA Model shows that the MJO may soon embark on another circumnavigation—If so it is likely to reach the western Pacific again from early February, and we can expect the next cluster of tropical cyclones in our area around mid-February.
Currently the MJO is in the Indian Ocean and indeed there is a tropical Low forming east of Madagascar with two more on its eastern side.
This also shows up in the Meteo France at New Caledonia’s Cyclone probability diagram seen at
TC PALI moved SW towards the equator and faded away at 2N.
TC ALEX in the mid north-Atlantic ocean popped up as a strange surprise.
Tropical cyclone ULA finally faded to north of NZ over past few days.
TC VICTOR was named on Friday evening (Fiji date) and is now approaching CAT 4 between Niue and the Southern Cooks.
For the latest update check http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/65648.html
To see how TC VICTOR modifies (or is modified by) the near-by jetstream, see my video blog at https://youtu.be/rWmTchT38SQ
The weekly rain maps for the tropics over the past two weeks show a transfer of heaviest rain from the PALI area to the VICTOR area.
These can be seen at http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/big_global_accumlation.gif
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
Most of the old SPCZ has been taken south by VICTOR, but a new one is reforming mainly between equator and 10S, on the south end of the fading zone of equatorial westerly winds.
A tropical LOW is expected to form near Tahiti by mid-week and travel to the SE – may bring some squally showers.
STR= Sub-tropical Ridge
STR is strong along 30 to 40S across the South Pacific this week, HIGH near 40S 160W is quasi–stationary and will likely slow the progress of VICTOR and knock it to the SW along its NW shoulder.
For NZ and Tasman Sea
A wet trough is expected to cross the country on Monday and Tuesday.
Then a disturbed west/northwest flow is expected to cover central and southern parts, with a ridge of high pressure over the northern third.
See my yotpak at boatbooks.co.nz/weather.html for terms used.
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