The gales of VICTOR are tonight unwinding as the cyclone slowly unravels and dances around Nuku'alofa.
VICTOR has been giving low pressures (below 1000hPa) and strong and gusty winds to NIUE all week, with wind slowly swinging from a southerly to a northerly as VICTOR travelled slowly south.
NIUE weather data for past week may be seen at Weather Underground at http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/NFTF/2016/1/22/WeeklyHistory.html?req_city=Fuaamotu&req_statename=Tonga&reqdb.zip=00000&reqdb.magic=2&reqdb.wmo=91879&MR=1
Then VICTOR started to move to the southwest, getting closer to the equator-ward entrance region of the Jetstream—a place favorable for further formation and surface pressure fall.
However tonight VICTOR has gone too far to the southwest and is now encountering the increasing shear of the Jetstream, so will “have its top knocked off”.
Here is the latest text report about VICTOR from the Fiji Met Service at http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20032.txt
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A36 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 220746 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0S 174.4W AT 220600 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GOES IR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING WEST 09 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.
And this evening’s threat map from Fiji Met Service may be seen at http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/65648.html
VICTOR has managed to dissipate a lot of energy from the ocean/atmosphere as wind and rain (and swell , and mostly this has been done over the open sea, and thus not been too been too damaging.