Bobgram 2 June 2024

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 2 June 2024

A review of last month's weather
Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the
isobars and streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at
youtu.be/pceor5SPI1Y
During May we had a series of Highs and Lows migrating eastwards south
of 35S.

The tropics were quiet. There were two MJO events but these faded in
the Pacific.
Sea Surface temperature anomalies show
A strong warm current covers the north Pacific. The tropical Atlantic
is much warmer than normal and a busy Atlantic cyclone season is very
likely, The cool seas of an El Nino are starting to show near the
Galapagos. And there is a cool pool of water showing at the southwest
end of
During May the subtropical ridge in the southern hemisphere sifted
south and shrunk a little.
The anomaly pressure pattern for May shows Highs forming over and
south of Australia and lows lingering to east of the North Island.
In May the average weather map had a stronger subtropical ridge tan
the previous month, with a sign of shifting south.
Hobart's isobar rose for 1017 to 1021.

TROPICS
Cyclone Remal left at least 65 people dead across eastern India and
Bangladesh as one of the longest lasting on record there. Typhoon
Ewiniar's fury in the northeastern Philippines killed at least seven
people amid flooding, toppled trees and fierce winds. Malisika is in
the China Sea approaching Hong Kong and may then go off to the NE.

WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is sitting over the Coral Sea and
drifting north to be over Samoa and weaken over northern Cooks. A
trough at its southeastern end is expected to cross Southern Cooks
this week.

HIGHS and LOWS
Low L1 east of NZ is expected to be fortified by another low from the
SW and deepen to below 980 near 42S 151W by during the week Swells
over 3m on the backside of this low are expected to reach north of
Samoa to Tuamotu by end of the week.

HIGH H1 over New Zealand is expected to linger until the end of the
week and then be reinforced by another High from the south Tasman Sea,
and to move off to the NE of NZ next week.

So, this leaves the low in the Tasman Sea L2 stalled.
The back end of L2 offers a rare opportunity from mid-week for those
in Australia wanting to sail east into the Pacific.
Between L2 and H1 there is a northerly flow that may hinder those
departing from Northland for the tropics. This Low is expected to
finally clear past northern NZ early NEXT WEEK, followed by a stiff
northwest flow in the Tasman Sea. Those wanting to sail from NZ to
the tropics may need to wait a while for a favourable voyage.


Panama to Marquesas:
Variable winds in Panama gulf, with occasional downpours/lightning.
If going this week then get southwards to south of the equator as
quick as you can.

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weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
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