Bobgram 26 June

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 23 June 2024

The ocean has stored twice the heat the planet needs to run the
weather.
The amount of solar energy being trapped in Earth's atmosphere has
increased sharply in recent decades and is now twice what it was in
1993.

Writing in the latest Indicators of Global Climate Change study, an
international team of researchers says the finding raises concerns
about how much of that heat is being absorbed by the oceans. Other
studies suggest the increased warmth is penetrating thousands of feet
into the ocean depths, from where it may take thousands of years to
resurface. Scientists warn that the energy imbalance could affect
ocean currents, oxygen levels and the chemistry of the maritime
environment.


TROPICS

Tropical Storm Alberto killed at least three people in torrential
rainfall across southern Texas and northeastern Mexico.

WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is north of normal and more active
than last week in a narrow zone mainly between 5 and 10S from Solomon
Island eastwards to Tokelau, with no signs of development this week

There are passing troughs linked with lows in the mid latitudes. A
weak one of these should reach Tonga around local Wednesday and the
next a more active trough, is expected around 30 June.

HIGHS and LOWS

HIGH H1 has been lingering east of NZ much of last week and only
slowly moves east this week

Low L1 I the main feature this week. It is brewing from the remains of
a closed upper low that persisted in the Tasman for the past ten days
and is expected to cross northern NZ on local Monday night then spend
the rest of this week deepening and slow-moving eats of Gisborne,
finally clearing from Chathams next weekend.

High H3 is expected to slowly cross then central Tasman Sea then
weaken into a ridge as it reaches central New Zealand on Thursday and
Friday followed by a West to NW flow.

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