Weathergram

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday30 June 2024

A review of last month's weather

Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the
isobars and streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at
youtu.be/9n6WSsdRnuM

An interesting period of weather occurred in the Tasman Sea wit a
closed upper low keeping a surface low blocked there from 12 to 24
June, and then giving a low rapid cyclogenesis when it left the Tasman
on 25 June.
The tropics were quiet.

Sea Surface temperature anomalies from psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml
A strong warm outflow of the Kuroshio current into the north Pacific.
The tropical Atlantic remains warmer than normal and a busy Atlantic
cyclone season is now starting and up to Beryl already. The cool seas
of an El Nino are showing near the Galapagos. And there is a cool pool
of water showing at the southwest end of South America.

The anomaly pressure pattern for June shows in the Southern Hemisphere
a pattern reversal of Highs and lows from the previous month. In
particular, a large High anomaly from south of Australia to the Tasman
Sea has been replaced by a large low anomaly with a dense centre in
the South Tasman Sea. Ouch!
North America remains a breeding ground for lows.
The subtropical ridge has drifted north in latitudes east of 180
(degrees west)
The 1025+ isobar over South Australia has weakened to 1020, and South
Tasman sea has dropped from ~1025 t0 less than 1015.

TROPICS
Cyclone BERYL is heading WNW and expected to make landfall on the
Yucatan peninsula late this week.

WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is sitting over the northern Coral
Sea and extends to Tuvalu and Tokelau to Suwarrow. There is a passing
tough in the mid latitudes affecting the Austral Islands this week ,
and another affecting Tonga around 5/6 July.

HIGHS and LOWS

High H1 east of NZ is expected to travel along 30 to 40S and produce a
squash zone of enhanced trade winds from Society Islands /Tuamotu
Islands to Samoa. Avoid.

Low L1 and its FRONT is crossing NZ on Monday followed by strong cold
southwest and south winds on Tuesday.

From Thursday a trough/low is expected to form between NZ and Fiji and
ten deepen as it travels SE. Avoid, if sailing from NZ to Fiji go
clockwise around this system.

HIGH H2 is expected to move into South Tasman se around 7 /8July
maintaining a strong SW flow over NZ and south to SE winds between NZ
and the tropics early next week.

HIGH H1 over New Zealand is expected to linger until the end of the
week and then be reinforced by another High from the south Tasman Sea,
and to move off to the NE of NZ next week.

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If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.

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Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.

Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.

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