Bobgram 9 June 2024

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 9 June 2024

Gardi Sugdub is being flooded (as seen on Google earth)

Here is a link to a YouTube clip describing how melting iceshelfs are affecting equatorial islands

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TT3-049LlIo

TROPICS

Tropical depression Maliksi drenched South China's Guangdong province.

WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is stretched across the entire South Pacific from Solomons to Tokelau and then southeast to Southern Cooks and Austral Islands.

A HIGH is travelling east along 30S between 170 and 150W this week with a squash zone of enhanced trade winds and choppy swells between Tahiti and Tonga. This suggests those doing this voyage seek to avoid the rough stuff probably by staying well north.

HIGHS and LOWS

Interesting week ahead around Tasman Sea/ New Zealand with three lows.

L1 is moving over North Island tonight and should deepen off the east of Gisborne whilst a companion low L2 is moving east of the South Island. Later in the week these lows move off to the southeast in tandem followed by a narrow ridge which crosses NZ on Wednesday.

L3 is expected to deepen in the south Tasman Sea on Wednesday and then move northeast towards North Island by Friday, but, being under a blocked upper trough, it is then expected to loop southwestwards back into the Tasman Sea and might stall there until middle of next week.

This pattern remains OK for yachts departing Australia for the tropics, so long as they avid the fronts. However, it is difficult to determine a desirable pattern for departure from NZ to the tropics. Usually, it is OK to depart when a ridge approaches Northland, but those departing this Tuesday or Wednesday are NOT likely to get far enough north to escape the NW winds of L3.

Those wanting to sail from NZ to the tropics may need to wait a while for a favourable voyage.

Panama to Marquesas:
Variable winds in Panama gulf, with occasional downpours/lightning. If going this week then get southwards to south of the equator as quick as you can.

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