Weathergram

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday30 June 2024

A review of last month's weather

Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the
isobars and streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at
youtu.be/9n6WSsdRnuM

An interesting period of weather occurred in the Tasman Sea wit a
closed upper low keeping a surface low blocked there from 12 to 24
June, and then giving a low rapid cyclogenesis when it left the Tasman
on 25 June.
The tropics were quiet.

Sea Surface temperature anomalies from psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml
A strong warm outflow of the Kuroshio current into the north Pacific.
The tropical Atlantic remains warmer than normal and a busy Atlantic
cyclone season is now starting and up to Beryl already. The cool seas
of an El Nino are showing near the Galapagos. And there is a cool pool
of water showing at the southwest end of South America.

The anomaly pressure pattern for June shows in the Southern Hemisphere
a pattern reversal of Highs and lows from the previous month. In
particular, a large High anomaly from south of Australia to the Tasman
Sea has been replaced by a large low anomaly with a dense centre in
the South Tasman Sea. Ouch!
North America remains a breeding ground for lows.
The subtropical ridge has drifted north in latitudes east of 180
(degrees west)
The 1025+ isobar over South Australia has weakened to 1020, and South
Tasman sea has dropped from ~1025 t0 less than 1015.

TROPICS
Cyclone BERYL is heading WNW and expected to make landfall on the
Yucatan peninsula late this week.

WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is sitting over the northern Coral
Sea and extends to Tuvalu and Tokelau to Suwarrow. There is a passing
tough in the mid latitudes affecting the Austral Islands this week ,
and another affecting Tonga around 5/6 July.

HIGHS and LOWS

High H1 east of NZ is expected to travel along 30 to 40S and produce a
squash zone of enhanced trade winds from Society Islands /Tuamotu
Islands to Samoa. Avoid.

Low L1 and its FRONT is crossing NZ on Monday followed by strong cold
southwest and south winds on Tuesday.

From Thursday a trough/low is expected to form between NZ and Fiji and
ten deepen as it travels SE. Avoid, if sailing from NZ to Fiji go
clockwise around this system.

HIGH H2 is expected to move into South Tasman se around 7 /8July
maintaining a strong SW flow over NZ and south to SE winds between NZ
and the tropics early next week.

HIGH H1 over New Zealand is expected to linger until the end of the
week and then be reinforced by another High from the south Tasman Sea,
and to move off to the NE of NZ next week.

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If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.

Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/

Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).

Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.

Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.

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Bobgram 26 June

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 23 June 2024

The ocean has stored twice the heat the planet needs to run the
weather.
The amount of solar energy being trapped in Earth's atmosphere has
increased sharply in recent decades and is now twice what it was in
1993.

Writing in the latest Indicators of Global Climate Change study, an
international team of researchers says the finding raises concerns
about how much of that heat is being absorbed by the oceans. Other
studies suggest the increased warmth is penetrating thousands of feet
into the ocean depths, from where it may take thousands of years to
resurface. Scientists warn that the energy imbalance could affect
ocean currents, oxygen levels and the chemistry of the maritime
environment.


TROPICS

Tropical Storm Alberto killed at least three people in torrential
rainfall across southern Texas and northeastern Mexico.

WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is north of normal and more active
than last week in a narrow zone mainly between 5 and 10S from Solomon
Island eastwards to Tokelau, with no signs of development this week

There are passing troughs linked with lows in the mid latitudes. A
weak one of these should reach Tonga around local Wednesday and the
next a more active trough, is expected around 30 June.

HIGHS and LOWS

HIGH H1 has been lingering east of NZ much of last week and only
slowly moves east this week

Low L1 I the main feature this week. It is brewing from the remains of
a closed upper low that persisted in the Tasman for the past ten days
and is expected to cross northern NZ on local Monday night then spend
the rest of this week deepening and slow-moving eats of Gisborne,
finally clearing from Chathams next weekend.

High H3 is expected to slowly cross then central Tasman Sea then
weaken into a ridge as it reaches central New Zealand on Thursday and
Friday followed by a West to NW flow.

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If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Bobgram

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday16 June 2024

Lisa Blair establishes NEW sailing records
Lisa Blair is a solo adventurer sailor from Sydney and skipper of
CLIMATE ACTION NOW or CAN

She combines measurements of oceanid pollution with the sport of
establishing sailing records, to promote awareness of the message that
we need to make changes for the sake of the health of the ocean.

On 25 May 2022 she became the fastest person to sail solo non-stop and
unassisted around Antarctica, slicing 10 days off the original record

She added this record to her 'Around Australia' record (58 days)
established on 17 Dec 2018.

This year she added the 'Across the ditch' Sydney to Auckland World
record to her portfolio (to be ratified by WSSRC) in 8 days 3 hours
and 19 minutes slicing more than 4 days off the record

On 6 April She was greeted at the finish line with a hooting welcome
escort by hosts RNZYS to Westhaven Marina.

Then on 24 May 2024 she added the "Around New Zealand" record to her
portfolio , doing a solo non-stop unassisted navigation over NZ in
just under 17 days.

The record, to be adjudicated by the RNZYS in collaboration (CYCA) and
WSSRC, required her course to enclose the whole of New Zealand
including all rocks and islands lying within 8nm of the mainland.

"I'm sailing to save our oceans and to show people that as individuals
we all have the power to create change, it just starts with one
action.". Lisa Blair.


MetBob is a proud sponsor for CAN and I have been offering virtual
weather guidance to Lisa during her adventures.

CAN arrived back in Sydney on Saturday 15 June and is planning to sail
around the Arctic ocean next.

TROPICS
There is now a risk of cyclone formation off Mexico next few days.

WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is a narrow zone mainly along 10 to
12S from Solomon Island eastwards to Tokelau, with no signs of
development this week

There are passing troughs in the tropics - as extension from the
mid-latitudes, with one passing Tonga on local Monday/Tuesday and
another around Sun/Mon 23/24 June. The first passing trough is
expected to travel east and reach Tahiti on local Fri/Sat 21/22 June.

HIGHS and LOWS

HIGH H1 is travelling ENE along 35 to 25S to be south of Tahiti
mid-week.

Low L1 is moving across central MZ tonight with squalls on its
northern side and travelling quickly southeast. It is followed by a
gap between systems - with light winds.

By mid-week a new low L2 is expected to form near 30S 180 (comes from
a leapfrog aloft. This Low is expected to travel SE and deepen quickly
and should bring some SW winds onto Tonga area. A HIGH H3 is expected
to travel from Southern Ocean to Chathams. This makes a squash zone
between L2 and H2 with strong easterly winds onto eastern North
Island.

Low L3 remains inside the Tasman Sea all week, rotating around and
remaining intense thanks to a closed upper Low. It is a breeding
ground of squall zones, one of these reaching NZ around Friday. The
Low itself may reach NZ early next week. this depends on a new High H3
which this week is stuck over Australia.

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If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Bobgram 9 June 2024

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 9 June 2024

Gardi Sugdub is being flooded (as seen on Google earth)

Here is a link to a YouTube clip describing how melting iceshelfs are affecting equatorial islands

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TT3-049LlIo

TROPICS

Tropical depression Maliksi drenched South China's Guangdong province.

WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is stretched across the entire South Pacific from Solomons to Tokelau and then southeast to Southern Cooks and Austral Islands.

A HIGH is travelling east along 30S between 170 and 150W this week with a squash zone of enhanced trade winds and choppy swells between Tahiti and Tonga. This suggests those doing this voyage seek to avoid the rough stuff probably by staying well north.

HIGHS and LOWS

Interesting week ahead around Tasman Sea/ New Zealand with three lows.

L1 is moving over North Island tonight and should deepen off the east of Gisborne whilst a companion low L2 is moving east of the South Island. Later in the week these lows move off to the southeast in tandem followed by a narrow ridge which crosses NZ on Wednesday.

L3 is expected to deepen in the south Tasman Sea on Wednesday and then move northeast towards North Island by Friday, but, being under a blocked upper trough, it is then expected to loop southwestwards back into the Tasman Sea and might stall there until middle of next week.

This pattern remains OK for yachts departing Australia for the tropics, so long as they avid the fronts. However, it is difficult to determine a desirable pattern for departure from NZ to the tropics. Usually, it is OK to depart when a ridge approaches Northland, but those departing this Tuesday or Wednesday are NOT likely to get far enough north to escape the NW winds of L3.

Those wanting to sail from NZ to the tropics may need to wait a while for a favourable voyage.

Panama to Marquesas:
Variable winds in Panama gulf, with occasional downpours/lightning. If going this week then get southwards to south of the equator as quick as you can.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Bobgram 2 June 2024

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 2 June 2024

A review of last month's weather
Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the
isobars and streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at
youtu.be/pceor5SPI1Y
During May we had a series of Highs and Lows migrating eastwards south
of 35S.

The tropics were quiet. There were two MJO events but these faded in
the Pacific.
Sea Surface temperature anomalies show
A strong warm current covers the north Pacific. The tropical Atlantic
is much warmer than normal and a busy Atlantic cyclone season is very
likely, The cool seas of an El Nino are starting to show near the
Galapagos. And there is a cool pool of water showing at the southwest
end of
During May the subtropical ridge in the southern hemisphere sifted
south and shrunk a little.
The anomaly pressure pattern for May shows Highs forming over and
south of Australia and lows lingering to east of the North Island.
In May the average weather map had a stronger subtropical ridge tan
the previous month, with a sign of shifting south.
Hobart's isobar rose for 1017 to 1021.

TROPICS
Cyclone Remal left at least 65 people dead across eastern India and
Bangladesh as one of the longest lasting on record there. Typhoon
Ewiniar's fury in the northeastern Philippines killed at least seven
people amid flooding, toppled trees and fierce winds. Malisika is in
the China Sea approaching Hong Kong and may then go off to the NE.

WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is sitting over the Coral Sea and
drifting north to be over Samoa and weaken over northern Cooks. A
trough at its southeastern end is expected to cross Southern Cooks
this week.

HIGHS and LOWS
Low L1 east of NZ is expected to be fortified by another low from the
SW and deepen to below 980 near 42S 151W by during the week Swells
over 3m on the backside of this low are expected to reach north of
Samoa to Tuamotu by end of the week.

HIGH H1 over New Zealand is expected to linger until the end of the
week and then be reinforced by another High from the south Tasman Sea,
and to move off to the NE of NZ next week.

So, this leaves the low in the Tasman Sea L2 stalled.
The back end of L2 offers a rare opportunity from mid-week for those
in Australia wanting to sail east into the Pacific.
Between L2 and H1 there is a northerly flow that may hinder those
departing from Northland for the tropics. This Low is expected to
finally clear past northern NZ early NEXT WEEK, followed by a stiff
northwest flow in the Tasman Sea. Those wanting to sail from NZ to
the tropics may need to wait a while for a favourable voyage.


Panama to Marquesas:
Variable winds in Panama gulf, with occasional downpours/lightning.
If going this week then get southwards to south of the equator as
quick as you can.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>