Bobgram 29 June 20025

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled 29 June 2025
WMO report on state of our planet in 2024
https://wmo.int/sites/default/files/2025-03/WMO-1368-2024_en.pdf
2024 was 1.55C above the 1850-1900 average and the warmest year in the
175-year observational record, beating the previous record set only
the year before.
One year over 1.5C does not indicate that the long-term temperature
goals of the Paris Agreement are out of reach but is a wake-up call.
The Antarctic sea ice reached the second-lowest extent ever recorded.

The observed ocean heat content reached a new record high. It has
increased by 16ZJ (ZITAJOULES) since last year. O if only we could
harness this. the human annual world energy consumption is measured to
be around 0.5ZJ

In 2024, the global mean sea level reached a record high in the
satellite record (from 1993 to present).

The minimum daily extent of sea-ice in the Antarctic region in 2024
was 1.99 million km2 on 20 February, which tied for the second lowest
minimum in the satellite era and marked the third consecutive year
that minimum Antarctic sea-ice extent dropped below 2 million km2.

There were droughts and floods but no obvious pattern in the rain.


TROPICS
The latest cyclone activity report is at zoom.earth and
tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and Tropical Cyclone Potential is from
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/tropical/tcfp/

There are two tropical depressions tonight near the Mexican coast, TD6
on the west and TD2 on the east.
Super Hurricane Erick weakened to a Category-3 storm just before
making landfall on Mexico's Oaxaca state, killing one person in flash
flooding. Erick was the first storm on record of Category-3 force or
greater to strike Mexico before July.
. Tropical Storm Andrea, the first named storm of the Atlantic
hurricane season, formed briefly in the mid-Atlantic.
. Tropical Storm Sepat lost force before its remnants brushed the Jap

WEATHER ZONES
Weather Zones Mid-week GFS model showing isobars, winds, waves
(purple), rain (red), STR (Subtropical Ridge), SPCZ (South Pacific
Convergence Zone) CZ (Convergence Zone)



Rain accumulation this week from Windy.com shows a well-defined South
Pacific Convergence zone over southern parts of French Polynesia.
Also, some heavy rain for Northland to Bay of Plenty and about coast
new South Wales from L2. And a rebuilding pf the SPCZ over Solomon
Islands

Wind accumulation this week from Windy.com shows a weak squash zone in
the tropics over Niue to Southern Cooks and a strong one over southern
Fresch Polynesia. Lows also have strong to gale winds around them.

LOWS and HIGHS
LOW L1 tonight is south of Chatham Islands and moving off to the east
along 45S to 40S and expected to be south of 155W by end of the week
HIGH H1 should briefly cross NZ on Tuesday and then move off to the
east quickly followed by NE winds between it and L2. Only quick yachts
can use this window to get from Northland to the tropics.
Low L2 is an east coast low deepening rapidly off coastal New South
Wales on Tuesday . Avoid the Tasman this week. Associated trough
should cross NZ on Friday.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, check metbob.com
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Bobgram

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.
Compiled 22 June 2025
SOLSTICE and the state of Greenland Ice melt
The Solstice this weekend marked the longest day of the year in the northern hemisphere and the shortest in the southern.
At this time of the year the Pleiades cluster is visible in the eastern sky just before sunrise (so long night light is not swamped by a full moon). This is taken by Polynesians in the southern hemisphere to be the start of a new year. Their name for that cluster is MATARIKI. In New Zealand we celebrated MATARIKI with a Friday holiday and long weekend. Tahiti will celebrate its first Matari'i National Public Holiday in 2026. In Hawaiian culture, the star cluster is known as Makahiki and its rising is also considered the start of the new year for agricultural purposes.



After the solstice there is a thermal lag until ground temperatures reach their annual minimum. For the next six weeks we can say that when the "days get longer the cold gets stronger". In the northern hemisphere a similar heat lag occurs, and ground temperature do not reach their annual PEAK until "the dog days" when the dog star Sirus rises just before dawn. When stargazing, if you can find Orion's belt then look left and up to find Sirus and then look right and down almost twice as far to find Pleiades/Matariki/Matari'I/Makahiki.

So, we are just beginning to move into the period of maximum ice melt in Greenland.
Sadly, the data shows that we are already forming new maximum melt recordings.

See https://nsidc.org/ice-sheets-today
During a May heat wave Greenland's ice sheet melted 17 times faster than normal, according to a new report by World Weather Attribution. In Iceland, temperatures soared past 79 degrees, breaking records and straining infrastructure not designed for such warmth on the island.


TROPICS
Typhoon Wutip left at least six people dead in Vietnam from downpours and flooding. The storm also damaged crops on China's island province of Hainan. * The most active region for tropical cyclone development continues to be off Mexico's Pacific coast, with Tropical Storm Dalila passing offshore and Eric striking Acapulco as a Category-2 hurricane.

WEATHER ZONES
Weather Zones Mid-week GFS model showing isobars, winds, waves (purple), rain (red), STR (Subtropical Ridge), SPCZ (South Pacific Convergence Zone) CZ (Convergence Zone)

Rain accumulation this week from Windy.com shows a well-defined South Pacific Convergence zone from Solomons to Samoa.

Wind and rain accumulation this week from Windy.com show a storm on the back side of a low east of NZ. They also show an active squash zone between Niue and Tonga and then a tropical trough forming over Southern cooks after mid-week. Avoid.
LOWS and HIGHS
LOW L1 tonight has a 990hPa centre east of Auckland and south of Niue with gale winds near its centre. It is expected to move off to the SE.
HIGH H1 in central Tasman Sea is expected to also travel SE across north Island next few days mid-week. A squash zone of enhanced trade winds is expected between Niue and Tonga. Avoid.
Low L2 is expected to cross Tasmania on Tuesday and then stall over NZ from Thursday to Saturday..
HIGH H2 is expected to slowly spread across the Aussie Bight this week.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, check metbob.com
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Bobgram 15 June

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled 15 June 2025
HOW TO EVADE THE WORST
The "Law of storms" or more pedantically correct "Law of Gyration,"
(or the law of the rotation of winds) was compiled in 1860s to help
sailing master mariners know which way to sail when encountering the
winds that rotate around storms. These were compiled soon after the
birth of weather maps with isobars and around 50 years before the
birth of weather maps with fronts.
Here is a link to the original article thanks to STARPATH
https://www.starpath.com/resources2/Practical_Matters_from_Dove.pdf
Around 30 years ago during the (in those days) Queens Birthday in
early June 1994 a fleet of yachts sailing from New Zealand to Fiji
encountered a deepening Low that formed off the southeast of Ne
Caledonia.
This became known as the "Pacific Storm" and prompted me to collect
together notes about South Pacific sailing as the MetService Mariners
Met Pack. This is still available at
http://about.metservice.com/our-company/learning-centre/mariners-met-p
ack/

As part of that booklet, I revisited Dove's "Law of storms" and
produced these two flow charts, reproduced in my illustrated
weathergram for your educational enjoyment at
https://metbob.wordpress.com/2025/06/16/bob-blog-15-june/



TROPICS
The latest cyclone activity report is at zoom.earth and
tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and Tropical Cyclone Potential is from
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/tropical/tcfp/

Tropical Storm Wutip drenched South China's Hainan and Guangdong
provinces as the first named storm of the typhoon season. . Tropical
Storm Cosme , short-lived Hurricane Barbara spun up off Mexico's
Pacific coast followed by DELILA

WEATHER ZONES
Rain accumulation this week from Windy.com shows a well-defined South
Pacific Convergence zone from Solomons to Samoa.

Wind and rain accumulation this week from Windy.com shows enhanced SE
winds in the Coral Sea and around L1 east of New Zealand.
LOWS and HIGHS
LOW L1 tonight comprises of several tight centres forming under a jet
stream between 25 and 30S and in area north of NZ. These should gel
into one on Monday and then travel southeast and deepen in the
subtropics. There is likely to be a lull on the tropical side of L1
along with a passing trough over Niue on Monday/Tuesday and Southern
Cooks mid-week. This passing trough is looking to be mediocre in the
tropics. However, L1 has strong winds around it
HIGH H1 in south Tasman Sea is expected to spread across central NZ
mid-week and then travel east from 40S to 30S when east of NZ. After
Wednesday it may enhance the trade winds on its northern side,
especially between Niue and southern Cooks.
Low L2 is expected to cross Tasmania on Tuesday and then southern New
Zealand on Thursday followed by a southerly flow over NZ on Friday.
This is followed by H2 travelling between 30 and 40S crossing New
South Wales on Wednesday and northern NZ on Saturday/Sunday.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, check metbob.com
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Bobgram

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled 8 June 2025
A review of last month's weather
A recent report summarises an investigation into how fast the planet's
land areas are heating up.
https://www.climatecentral.org/report/climate-change-and-the-escalatio
n-of-global-extreme-heat-2025

In particular it studies 67 extreme heat events in 247 countries in
the year ending 1 May 2025

The only areas with little change are the south coast of Australia,
parts of coastal Antarctica, a zone near Moscow, and spots in USA and
Brazil.

The study was able to calculate the contribution of Climate change,
using the Climate shift index. For more information on their
methodology please read the report.


Basically, the main impact of climate change on temperature is in the
equatorial zone.

TROPICS

Cyclone Barbara is travelling NW parallel to Mexican west coast and
expected to peel off to the west at 20S.
WEATHER ZONES
Rain accumulation this week from Windy.com shows a well-defined South
Pacific Convergence zone from Solomons to Samoa.
Wind and rain accumulation this week from Windy.com shows enhanced
SE winds in the Coral Sea and a well-defined squash zone near 25S
between Fiji and New Zealand.
LOWS and HIGHS
HIGH H1 is tonight centred on25S south of Fiji, and this week expected
to travel off to the east. Associated ridge may briefly cross New
Zealand on Monday night.
Deep Low now east of New Zealand is moving off to the east.
Low L1 is expected to form off southern New South Wales coast by
Monday and coast on Monday and deepen as it crosses NZ slowly from
Tuesday to Friday, with a southerly flow in Tasman Sea.
HIGH H2 in Aussie bight should move NE across New South Wales on
Thursday and weaken in the northern Tasman Sea by end of the week,
enhancing SE winds in the Coral Sea.
Gulf of Panama: light winds becoming mainly SW 15 to 20kt.
8N to 2N: Squally often westerly or SW winds and a sea drifting to
east
2N to Galapagos: Winds from between SE and S and a sea drifting to the
NW/west
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, check metbob.com
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Bobgram

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.

Compiled 1 June 2025

A review of last month's weather

Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the
isobars and streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at
youtu.be/TZUof6eDnBY

The highlight of the month for the South Pacific tropics was a chain
of lows that formed around 10 May.  Further south it was a series of
Lows and Highs

The 500hPa heights and anomalies shows last month's typical ridge
/trough pattern,

From http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_sh_anim.
shtml

Sea Surface temperature anomalies as at 30 May
from psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml

The Galapagos area is now showing warm anomalies.

There is a cold anomaly along the Canadian east coast

Also stronger upwelling and cold water off Baja California.

The Kuroshio current is warmer than normal..

From http://www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/fnl/slp_30b.fnl.html

During May the main changes have been season.  The Sub tropical ridge
in southern hemisphere has weakened. The heat low over Asia has
intensified and pressures have risen over Siberia.

Pressure anomalies for past month (below)

Shows the reversal of those anomalous  April lows in Tasman Sea and
mid-South Atlantic,.


The 1020 isobar has shifted northwards .

TROPICS

The latest cyclone activity report is at zoom.earth and
tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and Tropical Cyclone Potential is
from http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/tropical/tcfp/

A quiet time for tropical cyclones. Tropical Storm Alvin, the first
named storm of the eastern North Pacific hurricane season, formed off
the coast of southern Mexico.

WEATHER ZONES

Rain accumulation this week from Windy.com shows well defined SPCZ
between Solomon Islands and Samoa.  Also a passing trough near French
Polynesia.

Wind and rain accumulation this week from Windy.com

The wind accumulation shows a small squash zone ner Southern Cooks on
north side of a traveling High mainly on 4 and 5 June. Also bands of
strong winds off east of NZ around a deep low mainly after Wednesday.
 

LOWS and HIGHS

HIGH H1 has been crossing by north of NZ today and is expected to
travell east along 30 to 35S stalling south of French Polynesia late
in the week

 Low L1, is expected top form off Queensland coast on Monday and
deepen crossing NZ on Thursday and Friday then lingering east of NZ at
end of the week with a southerly flow over NZ.

HIGH H2 in Aussie bight should move NE across New South Wales on
Thursday and weaken in the northern Tasman Sea by end of the week.

LowlL2 should follow H2, reaching New South Wales at end of the week.

Gulf of Panama:   SW 10kt becoming light winds after Thursday, but
oulook next week  is for SW up to 20kt .

6N to 2N: Showery, often westerly or SW winds and a sea drifting to
east

2N to Galapagos: Winds from between SE and S and a sea drifting to the
NW/west

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

If you would like more details about your voyage, check metbob.com

Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/

Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com

(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).

Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.

Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Bobgram

Bob McDavitt' ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled 25May 2025

Tahiti to Tonga
Now that many yachts are about to travel west from Tahiti to Tonga, it
is time to review the weather, in general terms, for this route.

The main players:
1. Getting from the Tahiti area to Tonga/Fiji means crossing the South
Pacific Convergence zone, SPCZ
This zone may be weak or may contain squally showers. In the models it
is portrayed as a zone of light winds. To see a forecast for this
zone, use windy.com and rain accumulation for a period over five days.
This zone may linger in the north (it does this in an El Nino, or it
usually hovers between Samoa and Southern cooks. To avoid it choose a
different latitude or aim for gaps in the zone.
The SPCZ goes thru periods of activity and inactivity and is active
when there is the positive phase of an MJO (Madden Julian
Oscillation).
Occasionally a tropical low/passing trough will travel east/southeast
along the zone, making for a burst of wind/rain travelling east from
Fiji to Niue then SE across Southern cooks. These occur on occasions
even at this time of the year and can be forecast beforehand and
avoided.

2. Another thing to avoid is a SQUASH ZONE when a large High travels
east along 30S.
When the central pressure in the High is 1030hpa or above, it gets
dirty (above ten thirty is dirty) and squeezes the isobars north of
the high in the trade wind zone closer together making a "squash zone"
of enhanced winds and rough seas. These usually occur around 20 to 25
South and may last for several days. They are reasonably easy to
forecast and are worth avoiding. If caught in one, change your
latitude rather than your longitude.

3. The third thing to avoid is the PASSING TROUGH or passing low.
The systems tend to form on the eastern end of the SPCZ in which case
they travel southeast, propelled by upper NW winds as a steering
field. OR they may form on the NW (back) corner of a travelling HIGH.,
in which case they may get shunted south or sometime to the southwest.
They often have their own mini-squash zones (on their polar/southern
side), and calm zones (on their equatorial/northern side). Isobars
give a clue about the intensity of a passing trough: those above
1010hP are usually weak and those below 1007 are worth avoiding.

There are three routes between Tahiti and Tonga, the northern, central
and southern:

Sometimes the northern route via Suwarrow/Samoa is favoured, and
sometimes not.
The northern route goes via Suwarrow to Samoa. Often this is covered
by the SPCZ, but when the SPCZ is further south the northern route and
its northeast winds may be best.

The middle-route offers stopovers such a Palmerston Island and Niue
and is a good alternative when the SPCZ is further north. Watch out
for passing troughs and squash zones … these come and go. The middle
route allows short hops.

The southern route tends to get higher swells from the Southern Ocean

 SO, all in all, the "best voyage" changes every few days … sometimes
it's worth waiting for something that suits, sometimes it isn't.

Basically, avoid passing troughs and squash zones, and go thru the
SPCZ when it is weak. This may mean taking short hops rather than
getting direct from Tahiti to Tonga in one go.

=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

Onset of this year's Indian Monsoon
This week the monsoon is advancing onto southern Indian (blue lines
below)

It is around 7 to 10 days earlier than normal
From https://mausam.imd.gov.in/imd_latest/contents/monsoon.php

TROPICS


Last week an unnamed tropical storm spun up for a few hours along the
southern coast Another quiet week but note the potential areas around
India due to the early Monsoon, and hints of potential off Mexico west
coast. Also, a strange blob of potential around Niue, where L1 forms
this week.

WEATHER ZONES

Weather Zones Mid-week GFS model showing isobars, winds, waves
(purple), rain (red), MT (Monsoonal trough), STR (Subtropical Ridge),
SPCZ (South Pacific Convergence Zone) CZ (Convergence Zone)

Wind and rain accumulation this week from Windy.com

Rain accumulation this week from Windy.com shows weak SPCZ and blobs
of rain with L1 and near Niue. Also -- Jet driven rain with L2
especially over South Island. A large DRY zone over New Caledonia,
Vanuatu and Fiji.

The wind accumulation shows a windy zone attached to L2 when it is
east of New Zealand. After the recent squash zone over Minerva, this
week is looking quiet especially around New Caledonia, Fiji and Tonga.

LOWS and HIGHS

HIGH H1 spent last few days over Tasman Sea and New Zealand. It helped
form last week's EASTIE which turned BEASTERLY over New South Wales.
H1 is this week expected to exit stage right and migrate off to the
east.

Low L1 and its associated troughs is expected to form on the NW corner
of HI, forming east of Niue and travelling south to southwest around
H1. Avoid.

Low L2 bred in the Southern Ocean and isa well supported feature
driven by jet streams feeding moisture into it from the Indian Ocean.
After going thru the normal 3-day life cycle of a low in the
Australian bight it is expected to do another three-day life cycle as
it crosses NZ Tuesday to Thursday dropping to below 980. Avoid.

Gulf of Panama: Just light winds Healthy current going to South then
west.

Panama to 2N: Squally convergence zone. South of 6N there is a strong
east to NE going current.

2N to Galapagos: Southerly winds, and sea drifting to the N or NW.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
If you would like more details about your voyage, check metbob.com
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Bobgram

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled 18 May 2025

The QBO (stratospheric Quasi Biennial Oscillation)
Last week in my weathergram I showed that our recent South pacific
cyclone season was one of the quietest ever. Maybe the QBO can partly
explain this
The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is a natural climate pattern
that causes a shift in the direction of the equatorial stratospheric
winds, switching between easterly and westerly winds. These winds are
read twice daily by radiosondes released from Singapore. This
oscillation, with an average period of about 28 months, can have an
impact on weather patterns and is considered a valuable component of
long-range weather forecasting.

From acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/qbo.html
During the last cyclone season the equatorial stratosphere had
westerly winds. more than normal, and there was a slightly lower
troposphere than normal. These factors make it harder for tropical
cyclones to develop.
TROPICS

This week the monsoon is advancing onto southern Indian (blue lines
below)
From mausam.imd.gov.in/imd_latest/contents/monsoon.php

WEATHER ZONE

Wind and rain accumulation this week from Windy.com
The wind accumulation shows a windy zone attached to that "Eastie"
which briefly forms off the New South Wales coast, and a lot of
southerly winds onto Chatham Island east of NZ, on the back end of L1
There is also zone of enhanced trade winds mainly between 20 and 25S
south to south of Fiji.

The rain accumulation also shows a rain band associated with "Eastie"
and a rather uniform SPCZ north of Fiji
LOWS and HIGHS
Low L1 and its associated troughs has got east of New Zealand today
and Monday and is expected to travel steadily eastwards this week.

HIGH H1 is over Bass strait tonight and expected to take its time
travelling east across the Tasman Sea then cross central NZ next
weekend. By then it will have a weak squash zone in the trade winds on
its north side. GFS has a trough/low forming near Minerva reef
Mon/Tue 26-27 May but other models disagree. Watch that space and be
prepared to brace accordingly.

Gulf of Panama: Just light winds Health current going to SW.
6N to 2N: Not as showery as last week South to SW winds. Variable
currents
2N to Galapagos: Winds from S/SE and sea drifting to the WNW.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, check metbob.com
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Bobgram 11 May

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled 11 May 2025
A review of the cyclone season

We can compare the timing of these cyclones with the active phases of
the MJO on the South Pacific shown here in Blue.

The 2024–25 South Pacific cyclone season was one of the least active
seasons on record within the South Pacific Ocean to the east of 160°E.
Just four named storms formed (compared with an average of 7). None
intensified into severe tropical cyclones, the first such failure
since the 2008–09 season.

TROPICS
A second quiet week for tropical cyclones world-wide.

WEATHER ZONES

Rain accumulation this week from Windy.com shows well defined SPCZ and
blobs of rain with L1
The wind accumulation shows a windy zone attached to L1 as it moves
out of the tropics. Only patches of wind in the Tasman but a period NW
winds late in the week for eastern North Island.

LOWS and HIGHS
Low L1 has formed tonight just south of Fiji with an active wind and
rain band over Minerva and Tonga tonight and Monday then moving ESE to
reach Southern Cooks on their local Monday and Tuesday. Stay put for
that.

A FRONT with strong westerly winds is crossing south end of NZ on
Monday and then travelling east to merge with L1. This gives a SW
flow over NZ on Monday and a weakening southerly on Wednesday.
Large HIGH H1 in Tasman Sea expected to stay put until mid-week then
cross central NZ on Wednesday and travel off to the east from
Thursday/

The Trough following this HIGH should reach Tasmania on Wednesday and
NZ on Sat/Sun as a well-formed Low.
HIGH H2 in Aussie Bight by mid-week is expected to spread east onto
Melbourne area this weekend.

Gulf of Panama: Maybe some useful northerly winds on local Monday
else light winds or southerly winds. Health current going to SW.
6N to 2N: Showery, South to SW winds. Variable currents
2N to Galapagos: Winds from SE and sea drifting to the WNW.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, check metbob.com
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Bob blog

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.

Compiled 4 May 2025

A review of last month's weather

Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the
isobars and streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at
youtu.be/M72SdfJhSnk

In Mid-April Cyclone TAM formed near Vanuatu and travelled south into
the Tasman Sea where it was held in place for several days by a HIGH
east of NZ, affecting NZ on the approach of Easter.

Then at the end of the month another LOW from the Tasman Sea
explosively deepened near Cook Strait bringing floods to Christchurch
area and damaging winds to Wellington

The 500hPa heights and anomalies shows last month's typical ridge
/trough pattern, with the Highs showing either wave 2 to 3

Sea Surface temperature anomalies as at 2 May
from psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml
show that The Galapagos area is now showing some warm anomalies.
And there is a cold anomaly along the Canadian east coast.
Around 85percent of the globe is showing warm anomalies.

From http://www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/fnl/slp_30b.fnl.html

A ridge has turned into a trough in the Tasman Sea, else just small
differences from last month.

Pressure anomalies for past month shows deep anomalous lows in Tasman
Sea and mid-South Atlantic, and a switch from trough to ridge over
USA.

The 1010 isobar has retreated off Australia.
The northern 1015 line has moved north across Australia, but south in
the Tasman Sea.
The southern 1015 line is in much the same position.

TROPICS
A quiet week for tropical cyclones

WEATHER ZONES
Rain accumulation this week from Windy.com shows well defined SPCZ and
blobs of rain with L2 and L4
The wind accumulation shows a squash zone between 20 and 25S from near
Vanuatu to Southern Cooks. It also shows strong northerly winds near
NZ with L2.

LOWS and HIGHS

Low L1, the remains of the low that affected wellington and
Christchurch last Thursday, is travelling off to the east

HIGH H1 travelling east across central NZ next few days is expected to
form a squash zone of strong east to SE wind on its northern side
between 20 and 25S. Avoid.

Low 2 is expected to form over Vanuatu area late in the week and might
travel as a trough towards Northland this weekend as low L3 travels
east across southern NZ.

Since L2 might turn the winds between NZ and Tonga to be from NE late
this week it may be more comfortable to wait until early next week or
when this threat passes away before departing Northland for the
tropics.

now south of Southern Cooks is moving slowly SE.  Associated trough is
expected travel from Niue to Southern Cross this week, and the
southerly swells on its backside are expected to reach French
Polynesia late in the week.

HIGH H2 is expected to move into Tasman Sea by end of this week.

And there is expected to be a low L4 forming south of Tahiti by end of
the week.

Gulf of Panama:  Maybe some useful northerly winds from 8 to 15May,
else light winds.
Some light winds next few days then useful NE winds after Tuesday.
Showery.
6N to 2N: Showery, often westerly or SW winds and a sea drifting to
east
2N to Galapagos: Winds from between SW and S and a sea drifting to the
NW.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
If you would like more details about your voyage, check metbob.com
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Bobgram

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled 27 April 2025

WESTWARD HO … for those planning to get from Tahiti to Tonga

An introduction to the South Pacific Convergence Zone (What and Why)

Now that the cyclone season finishes mid-week, many yachts are about
to travel west from Tahiti to Tonga, and are thus about to sail thru
or around the SPCZ, this obstacle has become a talking point…as if it
guards the eastern entrance to the South Pacific like a protective
dragon or demon, and some have asked what is it, why is it there, how
does it differ from the ITCZ and what makes it tick.

Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos, and meteorologists concentrate
on the pattern.
In tropical meteorology the first idea given is the Hadley cell.

Recipe for the ITCZ

Because the sun is most directly overhead near the equator, that's
where the warmest seas are, and this causes rising air. 

Once the rising air reaches high enough it spreads outwards and
sideways to the north or south, where it sinks at dries out. 

The sinking air reaches the surface again around 30N or 30S
(subtropical ridge) and then recirculates back to the equator as
surface winds know as trade winds. 

The trade winds from each hemisphere converge together in a zone, and
this convergence narrows the zone of rising air into a feature called
the Intertropical Convergence Zone or ITCZ

But in the Southern Hemisphere, the Andes of South America cause a
split in the trade winds. They block a HIGH near 30S around 90 to
110W, or south of Easter Island.  It is quasi stationary, just like
the High between California and Hawaii, and has a gyre that collects a
rubbish heap just as badly (see Henderson Island: 
blogs.fco.gov.uk/lauraclarke/2018/04/10/henderson-island-plastic-pollu
tion-in-paradise/).

Recipe for the SPCZ
There are easterly winds on the north side of this "Andes" High: they
are dry due to continental outflow from off South America.   These
easterly winds travel well to west of the dateline along around 10 to
15S.

 And there are migratory Highs that travel east along the subtropical
ridge from Australia to east of NZ, with a zone of south to southeast
winds on their northern side. These South/SE winds come and go
according to the migratory high and are usually found around 15 to
25S. 

The convergence zone between these easterly and Southeasterly winds is
called the South pacific Convergence Zone, or SPCZ.

It is typically located from the Solomon Islands south-eastwards to
the Southern Cooks, and is around 1 to 5 degrees latitude wide, but
sometimes may have large gaps or be very quiet.

It is affected by many things:
the Pacific Decadal Oscillation or PDO which takes many years to
switch.
the El Nino/La Nina which lasts a year or so.
the strongest cycle is the ANNUAL cycle as earth orbits the sun,
making the seasons.
and the MJO which comes for a week or so every six weeks or so.
Read more about it at
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Pacific_convergence_zone

see www-gte.larc.nasa.gov/pem/pemt_flt.htm

I have found that the easiest way to determine the position and
severity of the SPCZ is to use satellite imagery, and the easiest way
to decide what it may do over next few days is to use the 5day rain
accumulation parameter on windy.com.

The latest Satellite image of the SPCZ is available as a small
attachment via an email request.

Send an email to query@saildocs.com with the message (no subject line
needed)

SEND  https://www.y2ksail.com/himawari/latest-SpacificLarge-small.jpg

Max puts together the Y2K links page and has recently updated it at
https://www.y2ksail.com/meteo-link.html

In a future blog I'll compare and contrast the three routes from
Tahiti to Tonga: when to take or avoid the northern, direct or
southern route and how to decide which is best over the week ahead.

NORTHWARD HO

Those gearing up to depart Northland. New Zealand for the tropics will
be often arranging a voyage across the subtropical ridge into the
tropics.

Usually, a good weather pattern to depart is in the SW flow found on
the back end of a passing trough/front/low as it moves off the east or
southeast of Northland.

However, if the following HIGH is TOO FAR south, as is the case this
week, then it may build east of New Zealand and make a squash zone of
strong east to NE winds near Tonga within a week after departure.
 Avoid these departures.

TROPICS

The latest cyclone activity report is at zoom.earth and
tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and Tropical Cyclone Potential is from
www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/tropical/tcfp/

There are no named Topical cyclones around at present.

Subtropical Storm Kanto formed well to the south of Madagascar as the
first such system in the region since Issa spun up during the southern
Indian Ocean's 2021-22 cyclone season. While Kanto formed far from
land, Issa caused significant death and destruction in parts of South
Africa.

 • After reaching Category-5 force for a few hours, Super Cyclone
Errol weakened to a minimal tropical storm before making landfall on
Australia

WEATHER ZONES

Wind accumulation shows windy conditions south of 30S  and a squash
zone developing in Coral Sea,

Rain accumulation this week from Windy.com shows a rather weak SPCZ 
and  a trail of rain with L1 also a wet trough southeast of Society
Islands/Tahiti.  

LOWS and HIGHS

 The High H1 south of Tahiti and near 40S should exit stage right this
week and allow Low L1 which has formed off eastern New South Wales to
slowly travel east toward Northland by Tuesday and then off to the
southeast.  There is a good voyage from Brisbane to Noumea riding on
the backside of L1.

Watch H2 which follows L1.  It is expected to reach central Tasman Sea
this weekend.  It is too far south to allow for a n easy voyage for
Northland to the tropics after L1.

Already by this weekend is expected to cause a squash zone in the
Coral Sea. And next week it may cause a squash zone or a new trough
over Tonga. There are several options and some of them allow an OK
voyage departing Northland around Wed or Thursday, but most options
don't.,

Gulf of Panama:  OK Northerly winds until Wednesday then light winds.

5N to Galapagos:  The convergence zone with squally showers and light
winds in-between them is from 6N to 2N. SW to S winds this week are
likely south of 3N.

Current around Galapagos are strong and this week go to the west.

Avoid the HEAD current near 5N 83W

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
If you would like more details about your voyage, check metbob.co
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.co
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom)
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Bobgram 20 April

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled 20 April 2025
Ten Tips for Weather Comms while Cruising South Pacific
TEN TIPS FOR CRUISING SAILORS
Now that cruising sailors are on their final preparations for
departing New Zealand for the warmth of the tropical Islands, 'tis is
a good time to review the ways to obtain weather forecasts and/or
provide position reports when at sea.
1. ZLM/Taupo Maritime Radio offer a continuous 7/24 Trip
reporting service, see
www.maritimenz.govt.nz/about/what-we-do/safety-and-response/maritime-r
adio.asp
The HIGH SEAS forecast for the area SUBTROPIC from MetService is read
out in English via ZLM at 0903hr, and 2103hr NZST/NZDT on 6224 and
12356KHz and repeated an hour later on 8297 and 16531 KHz.
(www.metservice.com/marine/radio-schedule)
NZ MetService ceased their ZKLF Radio fax 1 July 2023
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology still sends weather maps by HF Radio
fax. The nearest transmitter to the South Pacific is VMC in
Charleville, schedule is at
www.bom.gov.au/marine/radio-sat/radio-fax-schedule.shtml
2. Gulf Harbour Radio ZMH286 check in service with weather.
Patricia and David keep track of boats that listen to their
rollcall/weather service. Firstly, contact them via email or radio
with your details - boat name, MMSI, boat type and length. Then let
them know when you are about to take off and whether you will be on
air each night. They operate on 8752USB at 0515 UTC which is 5:15pm
NZST and an hour later during daylight saving, 6:15pm. Each broadcast
is live streamed so friends and family can hear your check in and
follow along. David gives a weather update each night for the passage
routes and the islands. And there are articles of general interest and
specifically on weather in their web site, www.ghradio.co.nz
ghradio@xtra.co.nz
3. Passage Guardian passageguardian.nz
peter@passageguardian.nz
Passage Monitoring is operated by Peter Mott and provides a global
free-of-charge service (donations welcome) that monitors the progress
of recreational vessels conducting ocean passages.
Peter uses a range of tools, including satellite trackers, AIS and
email, and multiple maritime radio frequencies to keep a constant
watch on yachts that have filed a float plan prior to departure. The
service has a formal policy for dealing with a missed check in.
Whilst available to all yachts, Passage Monitoring is especially
suited to shorthanded and solo sailors, in particular
circumnavigators.
4. AMATEUR RADIO/Ham net: PACSEANET pacseanet.gmail.com
The Pacific Seafarers Net is a ham (amateur radio) network providing a
free of charge check in service on amateur frequency 14300KHz USB in
the 20-metre band at 0300UTC. To participate, operator needs to hold
an Amateur Radio Operators Certificate (General class or above). In
the amateur radio service, the callsign is assigned to the licensed
operator, so this is a different callsign from using a maritime
callsign. Position reports are received and reported in the well-know
YOTREPS format (but missed calls may not be followed up). They have 12
listening station dotted between Australia and Alabama. See
pacseanet.blogspot.com
5. EMAIL via HF requires a PACTOR modem See
https://sailmail.com/

6. INTERNET via EMAIL
if you only have email, Saildocs (saildocs.com) relays details of a
TEXT BASED webpage. See weather.mailasail.com/Franks-Weather/Home
They allow you to download, e.g., the latest Fiji Met Service High
Seas by sending an email, no subject necessary, to query@saildocs.com
with message: SEND http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/10140.txt
For a list of useful links see https://www.y2ksail.com/meteo-link.html

7.. Fiji Fleet code. How to download a map via HF (thru email)
This is real old school stuff, but it still works if you need it.
To download the latest Nadi Fleet Code, send an email to
query@saildocs.com, no subject needed, saying SEND nadi-fleetcode
Or SEND https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/as/asps20.nffn.txt
This can be viewed within the Fleet Code plug in OpenCPN.
Download this at opencpn.org/OpenCPN/info/downloadopencpn.html
Open the email and select and copy the data (right click, Contral A
then Control C on a PC). Then, in OpenCPN's Fleet code plugin, there
are 4 options: Files, Text, Raw and Downloads. Select Raw and then
<paste> or CTRL-V and Voila! the map appears.
I still have a copy of the old, no longer supported Fleet code viewing
program call Phys Plot. If you want to try it, let me know.
8. Smart phone apps: Some satellite phones now provide Wi-Fi that
allow nearby smart phones to use apps.
www.predictwind.com provides an app that supplies forecast model
data, observations and, at the Professional Account level, tools for
routing and comparing departure dates. It also has a position
tracking tool and can help with iridium Go! and some other GPS
devices. A moderate subscription gives access to its universal AIS
package with a regional search option.
9. The Windy.com App has a free basic option. It also has a
subscription option that can be used to compile route plots.
To make one: - "right click" anywhere on the map, this will open a
small context window. - choose "Distance & Planning"; - place your
points on the map; chose 'Boat' and enter your average likely speed,
click on "more options" bottom left and in the "table of points" you
just made, click the button label "share" in the bottom right corner;
- remember and use the short URL link provided or the long URL in the
top of your browser. You can also make one by building the URL
manually if you are familiar with this. Each time you plug this URL
in your browser, Windy will show the map and your planned route.
Shift the start time to see which gives the best voyage.
10. YiT, Yachts in Transit, at www.yit.nz or mike@yit.nz has a
smart phone app, and offers a subscription service to plot your
reports and blogs on the web and to request weather information via
coded emails. They also provide info on how to use iridium Go!, YB
Tracking, or Garmin inReach for communications. This site was closed
for a while but is back again this year.


TROPICS
The latest cyclone activity report is at zoom.earth and
tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and Tropical Cyclone Potential is from
www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/tropical/tcfp/

There are no named Topical cyclones around at present. Tropical
Depression 31 is heading for top end of Queensland.
Cyclone Errol exploded in strength to Category-4 force between Bali
and northwestern Australia. It drifted southeast-ward and weakened
before striking the Australian coast near Broome during the following
week. Tropical Storm Tam drenched much of the Vanuatu archipelago
without inflicting significant damage. But its remnants later knocked
out power and triggered local flooding across New Zealand's North
Island.
WEATHER ZONES
Weather Zones Mid-week GFS model showing isobars, winds, waves
(purple), rain (red), MT (Monsoonal trough), STR (Subtropical Ridge),
SPCZ (South Pacific Convergence Zone) CZ (Convergence Zone)




Wind accumulation shows a demarcation line along the SPCZ. Also, the
track of L1 leaves a wind trail.

Rain accumulation this week from Windy.com shows heaviest rain may be
near northern Australia and along the SPCZ. A dry slot between BZ and
Fiji/Tonga.


LOWS and HIGHS
The remains of Cyclone TAM are finally moving across N Z on Monday.

The High H1 south of Tahiti and near 35S is quasi-stationary this
week and shepherding a small Low L1 from near Kermadecs southwards
then southeast-wards bringing a southerly flow to NZ on Tuesday, an OK
pattern for departing Northland for Fiji/Tonga.

However, by mid-week small lows on the SPCZ may form, L2 near southern
Cooks and L3 near Vanuatu.
L3 can make for stronger E to NE winds in area north of NZ by the
weekend so if you are unable to make a Tuesday departure from NZ then
for comforts sake it may be better to wait for next agreeable pattern
High H2 from Aussie Bight is expected to cross southern Tasman Se and
central NZ on Thursday and Friday then build east of NZ this weekend
with a squash zone on its northern side.

Gulf of Panama: Light winds until local Monday then useful NE winds
for several days
5N to Galapagos: The convergence zone with squally showers and light
winds in-between them is from 6N to 2N. Light south to southeast winds
around Galapagos.
Current around Galapagos is mainly from SE. Avoid the HEAD current
near 5N 83W
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, check metbob.com
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Bob blog

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled 13 April 2025
Recorded Natural disasters

The International Disaster database EM-DAT of the Centre for Research
on the Epidemiology of Disaster (CRED) gives a graph like this since
1900

As seen at https://ourworldindata.org/disaster-database-limitations
However the reporting system in the 1900s was insufficient. so if we
just concentrate on the past 23 years ...
...then we see that there is a reasonably constant trend.
The good news is that, thanks to improvements in forecasting, alerting
and warning, the number of human deaths had a drop to below 50,000 per
year between 2011 and 2121 ....In 2022 there was a European heat wave
and in 2024 some earthquakes jolted the numbers up.

TROPICS
There are no named Topical cyclones around at present.
But that system forming near Vanuatu has potential.

WEATHER ZONES
Weather Zones Mid-week GFS model showing isobars, winds, waves
(purple), rain (red), MT (Monsoonal trough), STR (Subtropical Ridge),
SPCZ (South Pacific Convergence Zone) CZ (Convergence Zone)

Wind accumulation shows the full extent of the Tasman Easter Low.
Also, some windy lows in the tropics about Australian north coast this
week.

Rain accumulation this week from Windy.com shows heaviest rain may be
near northern Australia. Also shows the rain trail of L2 in the Tasman
Sea.


LOWS and HIGHS
On Monday the front attached to Low L1 is expected to cross South
Island and then L1 should move off to the southeast.
High H1 is the Tasman Sea is expected to follow L1 and scoot around
the south and east side of South Island on Tuesday.
Clouds are gathering around Vanuatu on Monday in a tropical Low L2
that should then move south into the Tasman Sea. Here it is expected
to ingest cold air that has arrived fresh from the Southern Ocean on
the back side of L1. The squashing isotherms are expected to help
deepen L2 from 1000 on Tuesday to 980 on Wednesday bringing wind and
rain to NZ just in time for the starting commute of the Easter holiday
break. Avoid
HIGH H2 is expected to travel across New South Wales at end of the
week and into Tasman Sea as L2 crosses central NZ.
Them Low L3, near Tasmania on Friday combines with another low and
moves across Tasman Sea next week. Possibly avoid. This means that
the following 10 days are difficult for trans-Tasman travel
Gulf of Panama: Useful NE winds until Thursday 17 the showery on Good
Friday and light winds next week.
5N to Galapagos: The convergence zone with squally showers and light
winds in-between them is from 5N to 2N. Light southerly winds around
Galapagos and the current at the equator is to the NW.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, check metbob.com
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Bobgram

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled 6 April 2025
MJO/ Madden Julian Oscillation

A quiet phase of the MJO is expected over the next few weeks, and this
should help keep the South Pacific Convergence zone in a mellow mood
and reduce the risk of a late season cyclone.
Here is the latest constructed analogue forecast for the MJO

Basically, in these maps: blue mean "bubbly" and yellow means "mellow"

TROPICS
The latest cyclone activity report is at zoom.earth and
tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and Tropical Cyclone Potential is from
www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/tropical/tcfp/

There are no named Topical cyclones around at present.
WEATHER ZONES
Weather Zones Mid-week GFS model showing isobars, winds, waves
(purple), rain (red), MT (Monsoonal trough), STR (Subtropical Ridge),
SPCZ (South Pacific Convergence Zone) CZ (Convergence Zone)


Rain accumulation this week from Windy.com shows heaviest rain may be
near northern Australia. Also, with SPCZ to SE of New Caledonia.

Wind accumulation this week from Windy.com
The wind accumulation shows some wind zones with L1. Also, a small
squash zone near Kermadecs and between Niue and Aitutaki this week.
LOWS and HIGHS
Low L1 and associated troughs crossing NZ on Monday and Tuesday
followed by a cold southerly flow on Wednesday.
HIGH H1 south of Tahiti is expected to fade away late in the week.
HIGH H2 is expected to travel east across Bass Strait on Monday and
then the Tasman Sea and reaching central NZ from Thursday to the
weekend, with a small squash zone on its northern side.
Gulf of Panama: Useful NE winds and showery.
5N to Galapagos: Light winds often from behind. Good tail currents
on the direct route. Showery especially south of 2N.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, check metbob.com
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Bob Blog 30 March

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled 30 March 2025

A review of last month's weather

Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the
isobars and streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at
youtu.be/BeSWQwlK3qg

At the start of MARCH an MJO was affecting the South Pacific and
Cyclone ALFRED brought damaging wind and rain to the Brisbane area.

By mid-month the MJO moved on, but for the rest of the month a
monsoonal trough affected inland Australia and large anticyclones
travelled across central NZ.

March 2025 with its well-defined highs in the Tasman was a very good
weather pattern for Kiwi Grant "Axe' Rawlinson and Tasmania Luke
Richmond to row from Northland, NZ to Coffs harbour, arriving at beer
o'clock last Friday.

www.nbnnews.com.au/2025/03/29/record-breaking-row-across-tasman-sea/
axeoneverest.com/2025/03/28/tasman-2025-success-arrived-survived/

The trip took 22 days 4 hours and 40 minutes, and that's about 9days
faster than the 2007 trans-Tasman row.

The 500hPa heights and anomalies shows last month's typical ridge
/trough pattern, with the Highs showing either wave 2 or wave 4 ,
briefly wave 3, see
 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_sh_anim.shtm
l

Sea Surface temperature anomalies from psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml
show that the Galapagos area is now showing some warm anomalies.
There is a cold anomaly along the Canadian east coast. Around
80percent of the globe is showing warm anomalies.

At http://www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/fnl/slp_30b.fnl.html

The Aleutian low and Greenland lows have relaxed since last month.
The subtropical ridges in both the Northern and Southern hemisphere is
well defined.

Pressure anomalies for past month (below)
The anomaly pressure pattern shows the monsoonal trough over
Australia.
The 1020 isobar covers the Tasman Sea.
The 1015 line has moved north across southern Australia
The 1010 isobar has retreated from Fiji westwards to Queensland.

TROPICS
Cyclone COURTNEY is over the open Indian Ocean.

WEATHER ZONES
Rain accumulation this week from Windy.com shows heaviest rain with L2
on South Island north and west coasts. Avoid.
The wind accumulation shows where to avoid the trails of wind mapped
out by L1 and L2

LOWS and HIGHS

Low L1 now south of Southern Cooks is moving slowly SE. Associated
trough is expected travel from Niue to Southern Cross this week, and
the southerly swells on its backside are expected to reach French
Polynesia late in the week.

HIGH H1 should travel east from South Tasman Sea to eats of the North
Island blocking L2

Low L2 is an east coast low that formed off Sydney today. It is
trapped in the Tasman Sea and is expected to finally cross Southland
area late this week. Avoid.

HIGH H2 is expected to maintain a ridge in the Australian Bight.

Low L3 is contained within the Monsoonal trough over inland Australia.
It is expected to become an East coast low off Brisbane o Wednesday
and then cross North Island late Friday followed by a westerly flow.

Gulf of Panama: Some light winds next few days then useful NE winds
after Tuesday. Showery.

5N to Galapagos: Light winds often from behind. Good tail currents
towards 2N, but a head current to the east about the Galapagos.
Showery south of 2N

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
If you would like more details about your voyage, check metbob.com
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Bobgram 23 March

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled 23 March 2025

WMD

Today is the 75th World Meteorological day

On 23 March each year all meteorologists around the world commemorate
the commencement of WMO on this date in 1950.

The weather does NOT acknowledge any national boundaries and to gather
a working knowledge of what's happening we need observations from all
nations. Hence the WMO is needed to settle standards of observation
and share all weather data for our mutual benefit.

It has become a day whereby WMO can educate us all about important
matters. This year's theme is "Closing the early warning gap
together".

Over the past decade Governments around the word have been working on
how to get severe weather warnings enacted as quick and effectively as
possible. Even though the number intensity and cost of severe weather
events has been trending UP, the number of fatalities has been much
the same or even falling

WMO is now at the halfway mark of their Early Warnings for All
initiative, and significant progress has been made in saving lives,
protecting livelihoods, and strengthening community resilience. As
climate risks escalate, the urgency of the initiative continues to
grow.


These numbers show where we are

55%

As of 2024, 108 countries report having some capacity for multi-hazard
early warning systems, more than double the 52 countries in 2015.

Vulnerable Nations Progress

The least developed countries have shown the most significant
improvements, with landlocked developing countries and small island
developing states also surpassing the global rate.

+39%

The global average score for the comprehensiveness of multi-hazard
early warning systems has risen from 0.35 to 0.49, an increase of 39%.

Here is a link to a You Tube video on Severe Weather Warnings

https://youtu.be/35FvB7lst6o

"EVERY DOLLAR SPENT ON EARLY WARNING SAVES ON AVERAGE TEN DOLLARS IN
AVOIDABLE LOSSES."

TROPICS
. Tropical Storm Jude: After leaving at least nine people dead in
Mozambique and Malawi during the previous week, it drifted back over
the Mozambique Channel, where near-record high sea surface
temperatures fueled its regrowth. Jude then drenched southern
Madagascar, becoming the third tropical cyclone to rake the same
region so far this year.

. An unnamed tropical storm spun up near Australia's remote Cocos
Islands Indian Ocean territory.

WEATHER ZONES

Rain accumulation this week from Windy.com shows an intense SPCZ and
the heavy rain especially from NW Australia to Queensland. Yes, we
have the extra oomph of a MJO over northern Australia this week and
YES, it is expected to cross the Pacific over the following two weeks.

Wind accumulation this week from Windy.com
The wind accumulation shows a white trail with the Low in the Indian
Ocean. There is also extra wind and swell associated with the low near
the Kermadecs.

LOWS and HIGHS

Low L1 is expected to form just east of the Kermadecs by Tuesday and
then travel southeast this week

Hights H1, H2 and H3 are located between 40 and 45S and by mid-week
should be near 145W, 160E and 120E -consistent with a steady "wave 4"
around the planet.

The trough between Highs 2 and 3 is expected to cross NZ on Thursday
with some brief rain and a one-day southerly.

The SAM index/AAO index is positive and its trend this week is to
remain positive, so the fronts and SW wind bursts are not expected to
get far north this week.



High H1 in Tasman Sea is expected this week to travel across NZ on
Wednesday and Thursday. Before this there is a weak cold front/SW
change on Monday and Tuesday, but this is expected to weaken.

Panama Gulf to Galapagos: Good NE winds for starters and to 5N then OK
easterly or light winds and a good tail current to Galapagos.
Scattered tropical showers.

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Bobgram

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled 16 March 2025

How goes our Modoki La Nina
Looking at the ocean...
Modoki is a Japanese word loosely translated to "similar, but
different" or in New Zealand slang "Yeah, nah". Professor Toshio
Yamagata and a colleague named the phenomenon while investigating the
causes of Japan's hot summer in 2004.
This occurs when the Sea surface temperature SST in the central
equatorial Pacific cools, while the SST in the western and eastern
parts warm.
This differs from the regular La Nina where the cool zone is in the
eastern equatorial Pacific near the Galapagos.
A recent time section of SST anomalies near the equator and across the
Pacific, shows the cool zone of this La Nina is edging towards the 180
longitude. See psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml

The ENSO trend is followed by forecasting the SST for region NINO 3.4,
with values less than 0.5 needed for a La Nina event..
The combo of forecasts as calculated by IRI shows that
The Dynamic average forecast (red) stays below the La Nina threshold
(neutral)
and the Static model average (green) stays just over the La Nina
threshold until December this year.
I suppose we are somewhere in between.

Looking at the atmosphere...
The SOI index over the past month has been positive but trending to
zero.


TROPICS
There are no named cyclones around at present

In the past week Category-1
. Cyclone Jude killed at least six people when it roared onto
Mozambique's northeastern coast with winds of up to 75 mph, causing
significant flooding and extensive damage.
. Cyclone Ivone churned the open waters of the central Indian Ocean.

At present the MJO is poised to bring a new boost of energy onto
northern Australia over next few weeks and then into the Pacific by
early April
As seen at
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/forca.shtml

WEATHER ZONES

The wind accumulation shows that the windy signature around the lows
and convergence zones.

The South Pacific Convergence zone SPCZ and tropical convergence is
very active over northern Australia. There was an active convergence
zone over Fiji /Samoa last week and it has travelled south and can be
seen going SE in the wind and rain accumulation forecasts.

This week is looking relatively quiet in the South Pacific tropics.

LOWS and HIGHS
An active Low and Front labelled L1 south of Tahiti is expected to go
off to the SSE.
The HIGH H1 now east of the North Island and with a ridge over
northern NZ, is expected to move off to the SE.
The Low labelled L2 east of Tasmania and its associated front is
expected to travel over NZ on Monday/Tuesday followed by a southerly
flow on Wednesday.
HIGH H2 now in Australian Bight is expected to follow L2 and cross NZ
on Thursday and Friday.
L3 is expected to travel east so that associated front reaches NZ on
Sat/Sunday.

In Gulf of Panama: Useful NE winds for starters but they may be over
20kt between Tuesday and Saturday.
From Panama to Galapagos.. SW swells 1 to 2m. Tail currents and mostly
a tail wind.
May be showery between 4 and 1N

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
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Bobgram 9 March

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled 9 March 2025
The March of the Sun in March
During March the latitude of the overhead sun (also known as the sun's
declination) changes from 10S to 5N. On the 21st it is over the
equator, and we call that event the equinox (10:01pm, Tuesday 20 March
NZDT).

When the overhead sun is between 10 and 5S in early March it often is
associated with the formation of a convergence zone located SW of
Galapagos. This convergence zone mimics the intensity and mirrors the
position of the Intertropical convergence zone:



This year it has produced a strong east going surface current around
the Galapagos:

This poses challenges to anyone attempting the Panama to Galapagos
voyage over the next few weeks

TROPICS
The latest cyclone activity report is at zoom.earth and
tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and Tropical Cyclone Potential is from
www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/tropical/

GARANCE got to Cat 3 near the island of Réunion killing at least 5
people.
HONDE left at least three people dead and numerous buildings wrecked
in southern Madagascar. •
ALFRED brought a storm surge and heavy rain to Brisbane, killing at
least one person.
We can see how the track of cyclone stutters by watching ALFRED
approach Brisbane…
Last Tuesday/Wednesday what date/place would you have picked for
landfall, and how wrong would you have been?

JUDE is skirting around Madagascar
IVONE is over open sea in mid-south Indian Ocean.

WEATHER ZONES
Weather Zones Mid-week GFS model showing isobars, winds, waves
(purple), rain (red), MT (Monsoonal trough), STR (Subtropical Ridge),
SPCZ (South Pacific Convergence Zone) CZ (Convergence Zone)

Rain accumulation this week from Windy.com shows The SPCZ active over
Vanuatu and Fiji. Alos there is another active convergence zone over
Samoa with flood warning.
And there is that "mirror convergence zone" at 5S to SW of Galapagos.
heavy rain from Tonga to Niue and with ALFRED.


Wind accumulation this week from Windy.com
The wind/rain accumulation shows trails of wind and rain mapped out by
L1
LOWS and HIGHS
Low L1 is expected to form (from under an upper cut off) to the NE of
northland on Monday and then travel to SE
A cold front /trough is expected to cross NZ on Monday/Tuesday
followed by a southerly flow. In this cold air a Low is expected to
form neat Chatham Island by late Thursday and then move off to the
east.
HIGH H1 south of Tasmania on Monday is expected to be diverted so that
is travels slowly north across the Tasman Sea this week. It should
push a ridge over southern and central NZ on Thursday and then weaken
into a ridge over Northland by end o week.

ALFRED is moving slowly south and MIGHT go inland late in the week
near Brisbane.
HIGH H1 now over North Island is moving off to the ESE.
This allows an active cold front to travel NE over NZ on Monday and
Tuesday and then form a Low L2 near Chathams on Wednesday with a
strong SE flow over NZ.
That should be followed by H2 now in Australian Bight and travelling
east across South Tasman mid-week then onto Northland for the weekend.

Low L2 in Australian Bight is expected to travel SE. Associated FRONT
is expected to travel east and cross NZ on Friday and Saturday
followed by a westerly with some strong winds.
HIGH H2 in Aussies bight is expected to be diverted to north of Hobart
and then northward to merge with H1.
Gulf of Panama: A useful NE flow for starters
Galapagos: There is a "mirror" CONVERGENCE ZONE with squalls a about
and mainly to SW of the group. Strong East to SE flowing surface
current around the group this week.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
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Bobgram

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.

Compiled 2 March 2025

A review of last month's weather

Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the
isobars and streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at
youtu.be/R1DQQPwkNYE

During February the climate modellers agreed the Pacific is in ENSO
neutral territory. The MJO travelled across the South Pacific during
the month activating the South Pacific Convergence zone and forming a
series of 7 tropical lows with 3 of them becoming cyclones in the last
week.


The 500hPa heights and anomalies shows last month's typical ridge
/trough pattern, after a troughy January.

From
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_sh_anim.shtml


Sea Surface temperature anomalies from psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml


The fading blue tongue along the central Pacific shows we are in ENSO
neutral territory.

Average isobars for past month (below)

From http://www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/fnl/slp_30b.fnl.html


The Aleutian low and Greenland low have deepened.

The subtropical ridge in the Southern hemisphere has recovered after
its December extreme.

Pressure anomalies for past month (below)


The anomaly pressure pattern highlights these differences.


The 1015 isobar has expanded to cover NZ.

Ridge axis seems to have moved north of Tasmania.

TROPICS

The latest cyclone activity report is at zoom.earth and
tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and Tropical Cyclone Potential is from
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/tropical/


Cyclone RAE caused some crop damage in Fiji.

Cyclone SERU went over mainly open water between Vanuatu and Fiji.

ALFRED is a slow mover currently going south and MIGHT go inland near
Brisbane mid-week.

Cyclone BIANCA formed off northwestern Australia. Cyclone Garance
started near Réunion as Cyclone Honde threatened southern Madagascar.

WEATHER ZONES
Rain accumulation this week from Windy.com shows heavy rain from Tonga
to Niue and with ALFRED.
Wind accumulation this week from Windy.com
The wind accumulation shows trails of wind mapped out by ALFRED and L1

LOWS and HIGHS

Low L1 now near Fiji is the remains of SERU and is moving slowly east
.

ALFRED is moving slowly south and MIGHT go inland late in the week
near Brisbane.

HIGH H1 now over North Island is moving off to the ESE.

This allows an active cold front to travel NE over NZ on Monday and
Tuesday and then form a Low L2 near Chathams on Wednesday with a
strong SE flow over NZ.

That should be followed by H2 now in Australian Bight and travelling
east across South Tasman mid-week then onto NZ for the weekend.

Low L3 should form near Bass Strait on Wednesday, followed another
HIGH H3.

Low l4 should remain slow-moving over inland Australia, but the
monsoonal trough is rather dry this week.

Gulf of Panama: A useful NE flow for starters

Galapagos: A low has formed to the SW and there is a CONVERGENCE ZONE
with squalls over the group and another between 6 and 9S from 95W to
106W

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, check metbob.com
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Bobgram 23 Feb

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled 23 February2025

Sea Ice is now at its lowest on record in the Arctic and also near a
record low in the Antarctic.
See
nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-gra
ph


TROPICS

Cyclone Zelia roared ashore as a Category-4 storm just east of Port
Hedland on northwestern Australia's Pilbara coast but failed to
inflict significant damage in the remote sparsely populated region.
Tropical depression Number 18 is in the Coral Sea, TD19 is near Niue
and TD20 is in the South Indian Ocean.

WEATHER ZONES

Rain accumulation this week from Windy.com shows an intense SPCZ with
heavy rain especially in Coral Sea from TD18 and near Southern
Tonga/Niue from TD19.

Wind accumulation this week from Windy.com
The wind accumulation gives a good indication of the possible path to
be taken by TD18 and the max winds associated with TD19. That green
zone from Coffs to Bay of Islands shows OK winds for sailing mid
Tasman this week. Light winds this week for Vanuatu
LOWS and HIGHS
Tropical Depression 18 in Coral Sea is expected to move slowly south
this week.
Tropical depression 19 is expected to travel slowly southeast
affecting southern Tong and Niue.
Another tropical Low L1 is expected to travel southeast and remain
south of Tahiti
A trough is crossing South Island on Monday and Tuesday then fading
over North Island on Wednesday as HIGH H1 travels east from Aussie
Bight to Tasman Sea. Later in the week H1 travels across southern NZ.
Panama gulf---- some useful northerly winds this week.
Galapagos: An unusual LOW is sitting to SW of Galapagos maintaining
a west to SW flow over the group along with a east-going current over
2kt at 1degree South latitude.. Be AWARE.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, check metbob.com
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Bobgram 16 Feb

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

Compiled 16 February2025

Over 50 years of MJO

Fifty years ago, I started forecasting at Wellington Airport. In 1976 I started a 3-year period of forecasting at Nadi Airport and in 1979 I returned there another stint. During that summer in my spare time, I did some (unpublished) research investigating the extent and persistence of the South Pacific convergence zone SPCZ by compiling daily a cloudiness measure from the past 10 days of satellite imagery (thanks to then Director of Fiji Met Service Ram Krishna).


The story is that when we analysed the tropical weather maps in Fiji we would write the 24 hour pressure change next to each observation. Red for falling and blue for rising. We even had special red/blue pencils for this. I noticed that once a month or so we would go thru a period with a pulse of falling pressure travelling east across our map, followed by a pulse of blue, then a few weeks of relative quiet. In my stint starting 1979 I designed my cloudiness experiment to check the impact of this pulse on the SPCZ. You can see an animation of these maps here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dyXXHMA0_ro Very poor quality and jerky animation, and it didn't seem to show much, so I never bothered publishing anything. I wasn't aware of it at that time, but Madden and Julian had already published THEIR paper on this phenomenon

"Detection of a 40-50 day oscillation in the zonal wind in the Tropical Pacific."
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/atsc/28/5/1520-0469_1971_028_0702_doadoi_2_0_co_2.xml

Back in the early 70s, Roland A. Madden and Paul R. Julian were working for NCAR in Boulder Colorado, studying the QBO (Quasi -biennial Oscillation) n almost two-yearly switch of the zonal wind sin the stratosphere, and its impact on cyclone formation (one year more have increased risk, then be followed by a year with less risk). They wanted to find equatorial waves, so they examined 10 years of radiosonde (balloon flight data) from Canto Island. And found this 40-50day wave, now called the MJO.


The MJO is a pulse of extra convection that goes eastwards around the tropics, mainly noticeable from Indian Ocean, across the Indonesian to "top of Australia" region and the across the pacific. It is easy enough to track and thus worth following for it is indeed a forecasting tool.

In the following 50 years this mechanism has been studied by many, bringing with it many new terms to meteorology such mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), and convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs). Papers have been written about how it triggers cyclones, extreme weather (even outside the tropics), and the onset of monsoons.

To use this forecasting tool in your own cruise planning, I recommend a trip to

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foregfs.shtml
and to help you read the imagery, remember my mnemonic
BLUE is BUBBLY .................. YELLOW is MELLOW

The forecast shows an initial position and date, and then the trend for the following fortnight. Try to avoid the bubbly blue areas.

The website also shows recent data as a time /Longitude plot centred on the 180 meridian.


This graph shows the cyclic nature of the MJO and how it mainly manifests just from near 0 to near 180, and each pulse seems to have its own pace and intensity.

Anyway, today's data shows that the active phase of the MJO that has been affecting North Australia, and the South Pacific convergence zone is now slowly exiting, stage right. However, the activity near Tonga by midweek might deepen rapidly near southern Cooks late this week. Avoid.

This means that over the next few weeks of February there should be a period of relatively quiet weather with the SPCZ.

It also means that the next MJO active pulse is likely to move across the north end of Australia early in March and then into the Pacific around mid-March. Avoid.

TROPICS
Category-5 Cyclone Zelia took aim on a coastal stretch of northwestern Australia, halting mining and port operations in the remote region. * Cyclones Vince and Taliah lost force over the central Indian Ocean.

WEATHER ZONES

Rain accumulation this week from Windy.com shows an intense SPCZ with heavy rain especially from Rotuma to the Niua (N Tonga) to Niue to Southern Cooks associated with passing lows.
The wind accumulation shows wind zones associated with lows L2, L3 and L4.
Light winds this week for Vanuatu, after all that thundery weather there last week.

LOWS and HIGHS
The series of tropical lows L1, L2 and L3 are all expected to be steered slowly to south or southeast. L3 might grow to be a tropical cyclone affecting Southern Coos area late this week. Take note and check.

There is a Low approaching North Island on Monday from the north, and another deepening in Tasman Sea by Tuesday. These should cross NZ next few days and combine as L4 to south of South Island by late Wednesday, followed by a front and a southerly change Thu/Fri.

High H1 is expected to travel from Southern Bight to central Tasman Sea on Friday 21 Feb. Then this High H1 is expected to cross NZ on Sat/Sun 22/23 February.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
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